Democratic caucus choice still seems to be among top 3

ShareThis

MASON CITY, Iowa -- A shudder went through the Hawkeye State on a Wednesday afternoon in late May.A memo by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, was leaked to the press.It suggested the unthinkable."My recommendation is to pull completely out of Iowa and spend the money and Senator Clinton's time on other states," Henry wrote.With so many states moving up their presidential nominating contests, "this old system" of Iowa as the make-or-break lead-off state was about to collapse, he predicted.The former first lady was riding high in the national polls. Why gamble on enigmatic Iowa?In the first-caucus state, she trailed former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina -- who had been stumping here since 2003 -- and the new face on the scene, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.Some Iowans took the memo as an insult. Clinton might as well have referred to the cornfields as "fly-over country."To contain damage, Clinton placed a call to one of the more reassuring voices on the Iowa airwaves, veteran political reporter O. Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa."I'm unequivocally committed to competing in Iowa," Clinton told Henderson, saying she flatly rejected the memo's advice.Clinton's decision to fight in Iowa was a pivotal moment in the long march to the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver.And it creates an intriguing set of "what-ifs."What if she doesn't finish first? The race could be thrown wide open.What if she had just taken her lumps and skipped Iowa?"In retrospect now, things would have been different if she skipped Iowa," Henderson said. "The firewall (for Clinton) in New Hampshire would maybe be a lot taller today."Instead, Clinton put her chips on the table. Now, the presumptive national front-runner has the most at stake going into Thursday's caucuses.She, Obama and Edwards still are locked in a fierce -- and costly -- battle for the top spot.And, with the momentum he first built in Iowa, Obama has erased Clinton's once-substantial lead in the state that votes five days later: New Hampshire.The long march to the nation's first nominating contest has always been about the former first lady.She began with the biggest name -- and the most political baggage. Her challenge was to get off the pedestal, soften her image, transcend her polarizing past, ride the political organization her husband, Bill Clinton, had built, but ultimately stand up for herself.If she could do that, she'd stay the odds-on favorite to accept the party's nomination.But a big question emerged as the political analysts were busy debating Clinton's inevitability. Could she fend off an insurgency?X...X...XIn the early days of his march to the caucuses, Obama was a phenomenon, if not a fully formed candidate.He offered audiences hope and more hope. He drew pictures of the country's challenges in big, broad strokes. Critics asked, "Where's the beef?" -- just as former Vice President Walter Mondale once asked of another insurgent candidate, then-Sen. Gary Hart, in 1984.Over time, and on his own terms, Obama put out the more detailed policy papers that the critics had been demanding. His rivals questioned the fine print -- particularly on health care. But on many topics, from renewable energy to foreign trade, the Democratic candidates' positions seemed to blur together.Obama's speeches stressed the biggest difference he had with Clinton, Edwards, Sen. Joe Biden and Sen. Chris Dodd. While they voted for a war powers resolution prior to the Iraq invasion, as a Senate candidate in 2002, he made a speech opposing it.Still, from the earliest days of the campaign, his movement seemed to be built on something besides policy points."Obama is so different," said Dean Fluker, who introduced Obama on Earth Day in Iowa City. "I've talked to a lot of young folks. The big thing is, they think he's cool."X...X...XOut in the middle of nowhere, on a stretch of highway outside Cedar Rapids, there's a weathered billboard that looks as if it has been standing forever."This is John Edwards country," it says.It marks some of the rural, Iowa turf that Edwards has been trying to claim since 2003, when he was the fresh-faced alternative in the Democratic contest.Back then, with a broad smile and a stump speech focused on the "two Americas," rich and poor, Edwards stayed above the fray between the supposedly "inevitable" nominee, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, and Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri.Being tagged an optimist helped. And on a cold night in January 2004, Edwards finished second in the Iowa caucuses, just behind the eventual nominee, Sen. John Kerry.Though the Kerry-Edwards ticket was doomed in 2004, Edwards never dismantled his old Iowa operation. He had shaken hands in all 99 Iowa counties that election cycle. So he was an early Iowa favorite when he began his second lap.Edwards delivered his populist message with a dose of urgency that was missing in 2004. Invariably, he began solo appearances by saying he had just gotten off the phone with his wife, who was doing "fine" and "sent her love."With the outpouring of support she received after her cancer returning, Elizabeth Edwards drew crowds that would make some of the second-tier presidential contenders envious. And, perhaps in a hospital room somewhere, she discarded the old notion that would-be first ladies should be quiet and polite.It was she whose retort during (yet another) trip to Ottumwa, Iowa, summed up her husband's advantage in the first caucus state: "You know," she told him at a stop sign, "I think if someone asked me, I could give directions here."X...X...XRank-and-file Democrats were a motivated bunch. In a deep field, even some of the party's second-tier candidates regularly drew bigger, more vocal crowds than Republican contenders.Iowans turned out to see New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. His memorable "job interview" advertisements stressed his one- of-a-kind resume as a governor, congressman, ambassador, Cabinet member and everyman not afraid to poke fun at himself.They jammed into diners to hear Sen. Joe Biden, an old- school orator, share the lessons he had learned in three decades on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.They showed up to hear Sen. Chris Dodd, who recalled his Peace Corps service in Central America and talked about launching a diplomatic "surge" to regain the country's respect in the world.All the Democratic contenders used opposition to the Iraq war as a rallying point.One of the more festive days of the entire campaign involved the long-shot Dodd. A white-haired baby boomer, he invited a longtime friend, music legend Paul Simon, to play a series of mini concerts for him.When Dodd's wife, Jackie, introduced Simon at a packed diner in Mason City, it came with a special welcome to the new faces in the crowd -- "especially the press," she said with a tinge of sarcasm.In Iowa's expectations game, any one of them could score big headlines on caucus night by sneaking into a top-three finish.But in a year when campaign spotlight was brighter than ever, most of that attention went to two big, national names -- Clinton and Obama -- and to the populist who was trying to cling to his Iowa turf, Edwards.X...X...XClinton and Obama began skirmishing over the summer.She jumped on his answer to a diplomacy question during a televised debate, saying it was "naive" for him to say he'd negotiate face-to-face with some of the world's more notorious dictators without preconditions.Although both candidates had long talked about the need for a new era of diplomacy, one that included talks with bitter adversaries, the flap set up the narrative that would dominate the rest of the campaign.She said Obama was too inexperienced, unprepared to be president "from day one." He said Clinton was too closely tied to old thinking and old institutions to take the bold steps needed for real change.The conflict spread to issues like health care and the role of lobbyists in the campaigns.Edwards mostly stayed on the outer edges of the Clinton-Obama conflicts.At times, he'd express agreement with Clinton. (On health care, for example, he agreed with her that Obama's plan did not offer universal coverage.) But more often, he'd side with Obama, echoing charges that Clinton was too closely tied to entrenched Washington lobbyists.By the fall, when Clinton took the lead in the Iowa polls, she became the main target for attacks.After she stumbled over an immigration-related question in one debate, her campaign accused the others of the "politics of pile on."At her all-women's alma mater, Wellesley College, she talked about taking on the "all-boys club of presidential politics."With aggressive counter-punching, Clinton's campaign appeared to lose its balance at times. She had to admit going too far -- including when an aide used an essay Obama wrote in kindergarten to attack him, and then when another brought up Obama's teenage drug use.Obama accused her of desperation. There were rumors that Bill Clinton wanted a shake-up in her campaign."I called my campaign and said, 'Are we having a shake-up?' I don't know anything about it," she told reporters in Des Moines.Clinton brushed off the story line about a stumbling national front-runner. She regained some footing when The Des Moines Register handed her a glowing endorsement that echoed her "ready to lead" slogan.Still, as the holidays approached, the race for Iowa remained too close to call. The national contest started looking that way, too.So she was asked again whether she still thought it was worth the gamble coming to Iowa."I always knew it would be hard," she said. "There's nothing surprising about that to me. But just because it's hard doesn't mean you don't do it. And I'm happy I'm doing it."On Thursday night, the nation will be watching to see whether that mood changes.(M.E. Sprengelmeyer writes for the Rocky Mountain News in Denver)