A marriage proposal that may become a demand

MOSCOW -- When Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Minsk last week for talks with Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko, the pair shared a friendly steam bath and dinner at a ski resort, then talked until dawn.

The discussion went into the wee hours because the two leaders were hashing out a plan to merge their countries. But the deal fell through because they couldn't agree on who would be leader. Both men wanted the top job.

Putin, whose presidential term expires next spring, went home to Russia and chose instead to become prime minister of his own country.

Lukashenko resumed his duties as president of Belarus, a country known in Europe as the "last outpost of tyranny."

But observers say the plan to merge the two countries is far from dead. In fact, many predict the courtship between Russia and its closest ally will heat up in 2008, with Russia as the main pursuer.

"During the next year, Russia will continue its expansion to Belarus," said Alexander Fadeev, a Belarus expert with Moscow's Institute of Commonwealth of Integrated States.

For now, Belarus is playing coy, but observers say Russia has the upper hand. Its goal is to weaken its neighbor financially, leaving it with no options but to one day align itself with its oil-rich neighbor.

"Russia wants a union with Belarus," said Yaroslav Romanchuk, president of the Scientific Research Mises Center, an independent think tank in Minsk. The snag in last week's summit occurred when Lukashenko, an increasingly isolated dictator, would not consent to a union unless he was the leader.

"Lukashenko is not on board," Romanchuk said. "He wants his own power base." Putin, who is said to dislike and distrust Lukashenko, refused his ally's request and went home.

The notion of reuniting Russia and Belarus, which is a former Soviet republic, has been bandied about for a decade. On paper, at least, the two countries have much in common. Russia and Belarus signed a union agreement in 1996 that envisaged close political, economic and military ties. During the Yelstin era in Russia, Lukashenko nearly persuaded the former president to let him lead the union, but that deal fell through, too.

For Russia, the attraction of Belarus is obvious. It uses Belarus pipelines to ship its oil and gas to European customers, but far more important, it views the small country as a buffer against NATO advances into Eastern Europe.

In the past decade, Russia has watched with dismay as two former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Georgia, rejected pro-Russian leaders and installed Western-backed presidents in the so-called colored revolutions.

There was no flowering of democracy in Belarus. Instead, Mr. Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for 13 years, jailed many political opponents -- others simply vanished -- and extended his power by eliminating a law that required leaders to step down after two terms.

Today, the country of 10 million people is increasingly estranged from its European neighbors. Its economy is controlled by the state and Belarus depends heavily on Russia for its energy needs. Living standards are far lower than most of Europe or Russia, with the average monthly salary the equivalent of about $330.

Rather than turning to the West for political inspiration, Belarus has leaned on Russia and supported it in its foreign-policy spats with the United States and Europe. Lukashenko has joined Russia's opposition to U.S. plans to install missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic, and he supported Russia's decision to withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty in mid-December.

But the partnership foundered when Russia raised gas prices. Belarus's weak economy relies on inexpensive energy supplies from Russia, but last year Russia threatened to double the price.

In Belarus, the notion of joining its large, powerful neighbor hasn't gained much traction outside the President's sphere. Most ordinary Belarussians have been schooled by the state-run media and believe they are living in a state-run paradise, Romanchuk said.

"The national motto used to be: A glass of vodka and a piece of lard is the standard of stability," he said. These low expectations haven't fueled calls for change. Most believe "we have peace and stability."

While last week's summit failed to produce a union agreement, the meeting resolved the countries' energy-price dispute. Russia agreed to a modest gas-price hike and gave its neighbor a $1.5-billion (U.S.) loan to pay for it.

In return, Belarus agreed to assist Russia in its opposition to the U.S. missile-defense shield, although Lukashenko did not say what form his country's assistance on the defense shield might take.

For its part, Russia left the meeting with its goals intact; Belarus is more financially beholden than ever to Russia. And there will come a day when it can't afford to spurn Russia's unification requests.

"Russia wants to keep Belarus weakened," Romanchuk said. "Russia wants a union with Belarus, but knows the electorate and Lukashenko don't want it. The only way to tighten the grip over Belarus is to increase its dependency. That's why it gave the $1.5-billion loan."

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)