How a miscalculation could spell mayhem in Taiwan

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BEIJING -- It's a highly volatile mixture of ingredients: a fast-rising superpower, a rebellious island, an arms race, dueling missiles, claims of independence, and a spate of high-profile political events that could trigger a reckless reaction.Taiwan, the feisty democracy that is fighting desperately for world recognition, is emerging as one of the most dangerous flashpoints for conflict in 2008. Outside of the Middle East, it remains the likeliest place where the United States could find itself embroiled in a new war.China and Taiwan have been preparing for war for years, building up their arsenals of missiles, fighter jets, naval ships and other weapons. China has close to 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwanese targets and the number is constantly rising. Taiwan has its own missiles ready to hit China, including its recently developed Brave Wind cruise missile, capable of striking Shanghai and other Chinese targets.The rhetoric on both sides has been ferocious. China's military often threatens to use force to prevent Taiwanese independence. Beijing has passed legislation to authorize violence against Taiwan if necessary. Taiwan's pro-independence President, Chen Shui-bian, has infuriated Beijing with his frequent talk of sovereignty.Tensions have been high for years, but 2008 could be the most dangerous year of all. It is filled with potential trigger points, including two Taiwanese elections, a controversial referendum, the final days of Chen's presidency and the Summer Olympics.This explosive combination of political events will begin on Jan. 12 with a legislative election in Taiwan, followed by a presidential election on March 22. The elections will be accompanied by Chen's latest gambit: a referendum on whether Taiwan should apply for membership in the United Nations under the name Taiwan rather than its official name, the Republic of China.Beijing is enraged by the referendum because it implies another step toward Taiwan's formal independence. China has recruited Washington to urge Taipei to cancel the referendum, yet Chen has vowed to push ahead with it, partly because it would help to galvanize his supporters and draw them to the ballot box.For Beijing, the nightmare scenario is a victory by Chen's candidate in the presidential election and a victory for Chen in the referendum. "Beijing's reaction will be the million-dollar question," said Chao Chien-min, an expert on cross-strait relations at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. "The Taiwanese government has been warned over and over of the dangers, yet it chooses not to respond," he said. "They will do anything to win the election. Beijing is worried that the situation will get out of hand."Beijing's nemesis, Chen, must step down when his term expires in 2008. But he will remain in office for two months after the presidential election. And if he is energized by victories by his pro-independence party in the presidential vote and the referendum, he could seize the opportunity to take a bigger leap toward independence, perhaps on the assumption that China will not dare to launch a war in the final months before the Beijing Olympics. (China, meanwhile, has warned that it is willing to take military action against Taiwan in 2008 even if it means sacrificing the Olympics.)"I think there is a real danger of miscalculation on both sides," Chao said. "Both sides don't really understand the true feelings of the other. There's a huge gap of misunderstanding. The people of Taiwan don't really sense the danger of the referendum because we're so accustomed to the name Taiwan. And China, for its part, doesn't realize that the referendum is only domestic politics with little to do with sovereignty."Any escalation of the conflict between China and Taiwan, even if provoked by a miscalculation, would trigger a chain of international responses, sending shockwaves around the world.The Communist regime in Beijing would feel obliged to respond with military action, since it fears a loss of face and an erosion of its legitimacy if it allows Taiwan to move toward independence without a fight. Washington would then be dragged into the conflict, almost certainly obliged to defend its Taiwanese allies against Chinese attack, although it has tried to maintain "strategic ambiguity" by avoiding any clear promise of support to Taiwan in the event of war.Susan Shirk, a former official in the U.S. State Department, has recorded in detail how a small incident in Taiwan could quickly escalate into a global crisis. In a book published this year, Shirk outlines one of the most likely scenarios that could lead to disaster. It begins with an accidental collision of a Taiwanese and a Chinese jet, after which news of it is flashed on the Internet, arousing public opinion to the point that Chinese leaders feel they must react, Chinese students march in the streets, etc.This would compel Washington to deploy forces to assist Taiwan in its defense, sine the U.S. would lose credibility in Asia if it did not help out. "Crisis escalation has a life its own," she warns in her book. "War can result even if nobody wants it."The rise of the Chinese Internet and the populist Chinese media, with their power to mobilize the Chinese people in nationalist directions, are key reasons for the growing instability in the balance between Beijing and Taipei. While the Chinese military is rapidly growing more powerful, China's ability to control its own population is declining.Chen Shui-bian, a native-born Taiwanese and the island's first president from the Democratic Progressive Party, is a charismatic public speaker from a poor rural background. Seen as a steely fighter with a populist touch, he insists he is a "peacemaker, not a trouble maker" and says he has no plans to declare independence except in the event of a Chinese invasion.But his often prickly approach toward Beijing, and his party's traditional pro-independence stand, have caused some to worry about Taiwan's longer-term stability and prosperity. China remains deeply suspicious of him, accusing him of planning constitutional changes that would destroy its hopes of eventual reunification.(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)