Clinton's lead in California may be slipping

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SAN FRANCISCO -- For months, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has appeared to have an iron grip on California's primary election, with an army of top-name endorsers and a formidable ground organization that helped her amass a 2-1 lead in the polls over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.But with Clinton's "inevitability" armor appearing tarnished by Obama's gains in crucial Iowa and New Hampshire, some political observers are now debating whether shifts in those early states may have a ripple effect that could put California in play.The increasingly heated competition among Democrats for attention and dollars in the nation's most populous state -- which will be one of the 22 states holding "Tsunami Tuesday" primaries on Feb. 5 -- is underscored by the competing schedules of the two top Democratic candidates in California Monday.Clinton and Obama were holding nearly simultaneous fundraisers in Los Angeles, with the Illinois senator hosting a $25-to-$50-per-ticket rally at the Universal City Walk amphitheater almost at the same time the New York senator held a $250-a-head event across town at Social Hollywood, a restaurant and club. Clinton will appear in San Francisco on Tuesday, joining Warren Buffet for a roundtable discussion at the San Francisco Hilton before she heads off to fundraisers elsewhere in the city and in Sacramento. The visits come at a time when some suggest the changing landscape of the race in states like Iowa and New Hampshire -- where voters cast ballots next month -- could reshape the race for the Democratic nomination and increase California's importance in the 2008 presidential election. For Clinton, "California isn't a lock at all," said Michael Semler, professor of politics at Cal State Sacramento, who added that success in the Golden State is vital for the former first lady. "She'd better win California -- or she's history."Semler said that based on the new volatility in the Democratic race, "I have a growing belief that the (2008 Democratic) convention might really be a convention." "I don't think it's a lock," agreed Hoover Institution research fellow Bill Whalen. "If a front-runner falls, it becomes a wildfire that takes on its own life. ... It could be wrapped up by Feb. 5, but not for the person we thought."David Plouffe, national campaign manager for Obama, said Clinton's early poll leads reflected her name recognition and "were largely irrelevant."He said Obama's effort in recent months has strengthened his hand in California with its mother lode of delegates for the Democratic presidential nomination."What we've tried to do in California is to build the best ground operation in the field, so when we get through Iowa and New Hampshire, we have the ability to be at the doors and on the phone, to educate people and collect support," Plouffe said in an interview. "This is not lost on the Clinton campaign. ... We're seeing a very competitive contest."But Clinton's campaign -- which just sent out a blizzard of mailers to state voters, including a multipage book touting her as "Ready to Lead" -- insists the senator long ago laid the necessary groundwork for a solid win in California. This includes a widespread "Hillstars" volunteer program, a formidable list of major endorsements and an aggressive effort to reach absentee voters who will begin casting ballots on Jan. 7."We're not worried," said Luis Vizcaino, spokesman for the Clinton camp. "We have never taken anything for granted -- and we won't now.Leading pollsters watching the California race say that the 2008 election, more than any in recent times, could hold some surprises.Susan Pinkus, pollster for the Los Angeles Times, said that with changing voter opinions in Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton faces the challenge to live up to early expectations, "and expectation is always the game." But she said Clinton still has "a really good shot" in California because of her long-established political organization and strengths here -- and the affection for her husband, former President Bill Clinton.Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, says Clinton still holds a strong advantage among the most reliable grassroots voters in the Democratic Party here: She is widely favored by Bay Area and Los Angeles voters, holds a 3-1 lead among Latino voters -- the fastest-growing Democratic voter group -- and is favored 2-1 by women. "If you could design a profile for California Democratic voters, that would be it," he said. So "even if she loses ground, she can absorb it." "The headlines of those two events really will have a big impact," and if they aren't favorable, "she has little turnaround time to recover." E-mail Carla Marinucci at cmarinucci(at)sfchronicle.com. (Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)