By KATE NASH
Scripps Howard News Service
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
It was the first place he went on his presidential venture: close to home, with familiar campaign issues, a state where his cowboy boots blend right in.
Figuring Nevada was an early primary state where he'd do well, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson created campaign offices, tried out the lines he would repeat in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and got ready.
Fluent in the issues on this side of the Mississippi, likable to some of Nevada's powerhouse unions and happy to glad-hand in Republican areas, the Democrat went headlong into the Silver State, looking good.
That was in January and February, a political lifetime ago.
Now, with just under 80 days until Nevada's Jan. 19 caucuses, Richardson is behind Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and, in some polls, losing to former Vice President Al Gore, who isn't even seeking the nomination.
Being in that position this close to the caucuses will make it hard to come out on top, Nevada political scientists say.
"If he wins Nevada, it will be one of the great political turnarounds," said Eric Herzik, chairman of the University of Nevada-Reno political-science department. "It would catch national attention, and it would send a message to the party."
But the chances of Richardson placing first aren't high, said Herzik, who predicted the governor is on track to be third or fourth there.
"I think he's got a long way to go. He hasn't distinguished himself as a candidate that you would pick over the others," Herzik said, adding that the other candidates haven't done much distinguishing, either.
Richardson's inability to stand out, though, might not be for lack of trying. As of early October, he was the candidate who had visited the state the most, with 16 trips, compared with second-place Edwards' 15, according to an article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
While he may be winning the trip test in Nevada compared with other candidates, Richardson has recently dedicated more of his days to Iowa than Nevada, according to a review of his public campaign schedule.
In September and October, Richardson spent at least 11 days in Iowa and four in Nevada. Starting this Friday, he'll spend four consecutive days in Iowa, but none this week in Nevada, his schedule shows.
Although his campaign early on seemed confident it could do well, current polls reflect a different reality.
In the past two months, Richardson has averaged 6.5 percent in polls among Nevada Democrats -- far from Clinton's 45 percent average, Obama's 16 percent or Edwards' 11.5 percent, according to Pollster.com.
Herzik said Richardson's low name recognition and failure to win big endorsements in the state have hurt his chances. University of Nevada-Las Vegas political-science professor David Damore said the issues the governor has been emphasizing aren't playing so well.
"That Western message doesn't seem to be doing much here," Damore said. "It seems like for Democrats here, it's Iraq and health care, the national issues."
"We have water and land-use issues, and maybe that resonates with some rural voters," he said.
Those rural pollees, however, are few and far between. And as in New Mexico, they tend to be Republican.
But the Democrats, congregated mostly in Las Vegas, aren't tuned in to Richardson's Western background, Damore said.
"So many people in Vegas aren't from the West and don't consider themselves Westerners," he said.
Still, the governor could move up before the caucuses, said Damore, who predicted Richardson could place second at best.
"There's time to go and a fair amount of undecided voters. We still don't know how deep the support is for Clinton or if she's just the de facto candidate whose name people recognize," he said.
(Contact Kate Nash at knash(at)abqtrib.com.)
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