By SCOTT HOWARD COOPER
Sacramento Bee
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Five rookies who will have the biggest immediate impact:
-- 1. Al Horford, Atlanta: No one will notice because half his games will be in the library that is Philips Arena, but Horford will be as advertised: the most NBA-ready of the rookies. If the concern is who among the other young power forwards will sit, the No. 3 pick could get a look at center. He would be undersized at 6-9 but bullish enough.
-- 2. Kevin Durant, Seattle: It gets interesting if coach P.J. Carlesimo holds Durant accountable and yanks him for poor defense, although the problem was obvious before the draft. If he plays on, the No. 2 pick will move into the vacuum created by the departures of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis and rule the offense, getting the most shots.
-- 3. Mike Conley, Memphis: When he beats out Damon Stoudamire and Kyle Lowry, the first point guard taken will be the perfect fit for the planned up-tempo offense. It's a big jump because Conley had just one college season, but he showed poise in big games.
-- 4. Luis Scola, Houston: The No. 56 pick in 2002 had become one of the top players in Europe. Now that he is finally coming to the NBA, Scola could become the starting power forward and the solution to the Rockets' pressing problem. Few rookies will be presented with an opportunity to become a major contributor on a legit playoff team.
-- 5. Marco Belinelli, Golden State: Coach Don Nelson has dialed down initial excitement about the Italian import, but it's impossible not to see Belinelli as a perfect fit in the Golden State system. He shoots, he handles the ball, he plays fast.
Five coaches on the hot seat
-- 1. Isiah Thomas, New York: Being found guilty of sexual harassment didn't get him fired. It apparently will take something serious, like losing games by the dozens. Good thing for the anti-Thomas faction that is very, very possible.
-- 2. Mike Brown, Cleveland: The promise of a revved-up offense had better become real, because Cleveland was criticized in the playoffs more than any conference champ should expect. Brown went from shouldering that blame to going through training camp without two unsigned players, Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic.
-- 3. Maurice Cheeks, Philadelphia: Philly has a long rebuilding project underway, albeit with Andre Iguodala and the potential of Rodney Carney, Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith. Larry Brown is available and wants to coach again.
-- 4. Doc Rivers, Boston: There was great speculation he would take the fall for last season's 24-58 disaster. Try losing with this team and see how long you last. Boston needs to win big.
-- 5. Mike Woodson, Atlanta: He has won 13, 26 and 30 games in three seasons. Someone is going to have to take the fall for another lottery finish, and it's a good bet it won't be blamed on the players, front office or muddled ownership situation.
Five players on the hot seat
-- 1. Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix: The importance of being the best big man on a team that doesn't have big men is compounded by Phoenix's decision to trade Kurt Thomas, leaving the Suns more exposed than usual inside. Stoudemire as a healthy superstar is more important than ever for the Suns.
-- 2. Rashard Lewis, Orlando: For now, the deal is insane: giving a max contract to a player who has been an All-Star once in nine seasons and will be the second-best player on the team. If Lewis becomes more than a complementary piece, though, the Magic has taken a major step toward the future and has a decent perimeter threat to create room for Dwight Howard inside. If Lewis is merely an overpaid good player, Orlando has a salary cap mess.
-- 3. Andrew Bynum, Lakers: As soon as Kobe Bryant trashed him, Bynum moved under an unenviable spotlight. He just turned 20, but that won't stop every span of weak production from great scrutiny.
-- 4. Rajon Rondo, Boston: Boston added Kevin Garnett, Boston added Ray Allen, Boston still has Paul Pierce. And the Celtics offense will be run by a second-year point guard who started 25 games as a rookie and shot 41.8 percent. The Celtics are very encouraged by his potential. With this roster built to win in the present, they need to be very pleased with his today.
-- 5. Al Jefferson, Minnesota: Minnesota traded the face of the franchise, Garnett, and Jefferson was the centerpiece of the package that came in return. Not that there's any pressure on him to become great.
Five most important injury comebacks
-- 1. Kenyon Martin, Denver: A meaningful contribution, after missing all but two games last season because of a knee injury, would be a huge lift for the Nuggets. Denver is being cautious with his exhibition appearances. With Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby, it can afford to worry about late in the season.
-- 2. Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans: Back injuries are so tricky. Back injuries to a projected cornerstone that played 13 games in the first season of a $64 million contract are stroke inducing for management.
-- 3. Dwyane Wade, Miami: Wade had offseason knee and shoulder operations and said he hopes to play in November, and that early December is the worst-case scenario. That would still put him well within Miami's scheduled wake-up call for February and March and then drive to the playoffs. Wade simply means everything to the Heat.
-- 4. Nenad Krstic, New Jersey: His season-ending knee surgery didn't get much attention, but Krstic averaged 16.4 points and 6.8 rebounds and shot 52.6 percent, making him one of the East's most-productive centers. His comeback would be an important asset.
5. Elton Brand, L.A Clippers: Teammate Shaun Livingston would undoubtedly fit into the category as well, but no one can say whether he will play at all this season. Brand, though, is projected to return from a torn Achilles' tendon around the All-Star break. Getting even a half-season from a quality power forward would be an emotional boost for L.A.'s other team.
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