Showdown Saturday could set stage for season

By JOHN LINDSAY
Scripps Howard News Service
Tuesday, October 02, 2007

This Saturday was supposed to be Showdown Saturday around college football.

Too bad last week's Set-up Saturday got in the way. That's exactly what September 29, 2007 will be remembered as, the first time in nearly four years that five top-10 teams (No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 4 Florida, No. 5 West Virginia, No. 7 Texas and No. 10 Rutgers), all lost on the same day (four as double-digit favorites vs. unranked teams). Add in defeats for No. 11 Oregon, No. 13 Clemson, No. 21 Penn State and No. 22 Alabama, and that's almost a third of the top 25 going down. And we're not even to October.

Leave it to one of our favorites -- lovable Lou Holtz -- to sum up what happened last Saturday. "I told you it was the full moon,'' Holtz explained during yet another unintentionally funny ESPN appearance.

Holtz's lunar explanation aside, the bigger question is what does this all mean to the rest of the season? Maybe nothing. After all, Florida lost at Auburn last Oct. 21 and still won the national title. In 2003, LSU and USC split national championships with each losing before the second week of October. And in 2007, the No. 1 Tigers and second-ranked Trojans have gained some separation from the rest of the field and might just be headed to an inevitable clash in the BCS national title game Jan. 7 in New Orleans.

Or, just maybe, we're in for a strange run all season long. How wild could things get? How about the champions of the six BCS conferences being Boston College (ACC), South Florida (Big East), Purdue (Big Ten), Kansas (Big 12), California (Pac-10) and Kentucky (SEC)? Among those six, only one has won a BCS bowl in the last 50 years (Purdue, 14-13, over Southern Cal in the 1967 Rose Bowl).

Or maybe this could turn into a true train-wreck of a season like 1990 when Colorado (11-1-1 thanks to the infamous 5th-down win at Missouri) and Georgia Tech (11-0-1 in the pitifully weak ACC) split the national title. But remember how the next seven teams (Miami, Florida State, Washington, Notre Dame, Michigan, Tennessee and Clemson) combined for 16 losses with two ties? USC went 8-4-1 including a loss to Michigan State in the Sun Bowl and still wound up ranked 20th. It was a Rosie O'Donnell-kind of season -- loud, unpredictable and pretty ugly at the end.

Of all of Set-up Saturday's improbable victors, South Florida is the one that may truly have a chance to be a major BCS player (if not national title game participant) come December. That's because the Bulls' 21-13 win over West Virginia Friday night positions No. 6 USF, which didn't even have a football team until 1996, quite well. The Bulls still have to travel to No. 21 Rutgers for a Thursday night game on Oct. 18 and host enigmatic Louisville, Nov. 17. But USF will likely be favored in all its remaining games (at Florida Atlantic Saturday, Central Florida, at Connecticut, undefeated Cincinnati, at Syracuse, and at Pittsburgh).

That isn't exactly like making it through the SEC East. And since the advent of the BCS, only Auburn in 2004 went unbeaten from a BCS conference and did not play in the title game (also the only time three BCS teams went unbeaten). For what it's worth, the Sagarin Computer ratings also have USF sixth in the nation, thanks to wins over then top-10s Auburn and West Virginia.

Set-up Saturday's biggest loser would appear to be the Big 12. Only Oklahoma, which fell to No. 10 after gagging a 24-7 second-half lead at Colorado, is ranked in the top 15. Unless upstart unbeatens such as Kansas or Missouri, who both face lots of tough tests ahead, keep winning, the Big 12 will be limited to one BCS bowl bid in January. This after the Big 12 had a team play in the BCS national title game four times from 2000-05 (Oklahoma three times and Texas).

The biggest winner from this fallout might just be the much-maligned ACC. Maryland's win at Rutgers (only the ACC's fourth victory over a top-10 opponent since 2002) and Florida State's unsightly outlasting of Alabama gives the league a reason to hold its head up -- at least until basketball season. Then again with only No. 7 Boston College and suspect No. 15 Virginia Tech in the top 20 this week, there's still a lot left to do for what was supposed to have been a super conference by now.

UPSET PICK: Georgia Tech's defense carried us to a stunning 5-0 start. That first winning season in 14 years of futility is suddenly possible. Then again, we went a combined 25-68 the last six seasons so disaster always lurks. But what is No. 17 Missouri doing as a 7-point favorite over No. 25 Nebraska, who they have beaten a whopping two times in the last 29 years? We'll take the Cornhuskers Saturday night in Columbia.

LINDSAY'S LOSER: There hasn't been much to cheer about at Indiana State in the 30 years since Larry Bird took his jump shot to the Celtics. And certainly not on the gridiron this fall, where the I-AA Sycamores are 0-5 and have been outscored 226-64 including last Saturday's 72-10 beauty vs. Southern Illinois. That was ISU's 32nd defeat in the last 35 games since October, 2004.