By ROBERT COLLIER
San Francisco Chronicle
Monday, August 20, 2007
It was the frugal mini-car that lured the Liu family to the showroom, but it was the full-size sedan that hooked them.
Like countless other first-time auto buyers in China, the Lius were moving up in the world, and getting four wheels with plenty of steel was a key part of that process.
"A car! This means so much to us," said Liu Yang, while her husband, Liu Yue, fiddled with the dashboard of the Chery Eastar sedan that they were about to buy in a showroom.
The biggest car-buying boom in world history is under way in China as vast numbers of people join the middle class, abandon their bicycles for autos and sport utility vehicles.
Only a decade ago, cars owned by individuals were rare, and bicycles were the main mode of transport. Now, streets are clogged bumper-to-bumper, and total car ownership is expected to surpass the U.S. level by 2025.
Local governments are wrestling with transportation and land-use decisions that will set China's course for decades. Should China look and act like the car-focused sprawl of Los Angeles, they ask, or the public transit-oriented clusters of European cities?
"It's a vicious circle -- more autos, more roads," said Li Junhao, deputy chief of the municipal urban planning department in Shanghai, which has fought the automobile trend more than any other Chinese city by restricting access to license plates and taxing the use of cars in its downtown.
"There's not enough space for the cars or land to build the highways. The dream of Chinese here is much similar to your American Dream, no?" Li said. "It's just the same as anywhere else -- you want a car and a bigger house, so you consume and pollute more."
Last month, in a sign of the raw political clout of pro-development forces, China's oil industry blocked a plan by the State Environmental Protection Administration to tighten vehicle emissions rules to meet strict European standards.
Last year, China became the world's second-largest market for new vehicles after the United States, with sales of 7.2 million, a rate that is rising by more than 20 percent annually. Meanwhile, the government is building a nationwide network of superhighways at a breakneck pace. About 15,000 miles have been built since 2000, and 30,000 more miles are planned by 2020.
Unlike Japanese and European drivers, who favor the minicar (a two-seater about half the size of a compact car) and subcompacts, China's new middle class wants mobility, power and elbow room.
In the first half of 2007, sales of cars with engine displacement smaller than 1 liter declined by 28.9 percent over the same period last year while sales of all sedans increased by 25.9 percent, and sales for SUVs rose 39 percent, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
The auto boom has dire implications for next summer's Olympic Games in Beijing because it contributes to the noxious cap of smog that makes it the world's most polluted capital city.
Jacques Rogge, the International Olympic Committee president, suggested at a ceremony in Beijing on Aug. 8 that events such as long-distance races might have to be postponed if the smog remains too heavy a year from now.
"My concerns, which I believe are the concerns of everyone, are the climate and the environment, and especially the air environment," he said.
This weekend, in a test of the drastic anti-pollution measures expected for the eve of the Games next year, Beijing authorities are banning half of all vehicles from city streets, alternating days between odd-numbered and even-numbered license plates.
While the auto boom is most pronounced in the biggest metropolises, it is evident throughout the country.
. In the past seven years, Shanghai has built five subway lines covering 80 miles, carrying 2 million passengers per day, and 170 miles more are under construction. Auto license plates are limited by quota and sold by auction to the highest bidders, fetching prices as high as 50,000 yuan, or $6,700.
"What we have done here in Shanghai is, I think, very good for traffic and energy conservation," said Li Junhao, the city's urban planner. "Our biggest challenge is that trip distance is getting longer and longer each year per person."
Shanghai authorities have spearheaded use of the electric bicycle -- a contraption that can be recharged at home and allows the user to go about 10 miles per hour.
Known as e-bikes, they have become popular among commuters nationwide who don't want the parking hassles of a car but also don't want to have to work up a sweat by pedaling during the sauna-like summers.
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