By GLEN WARCHOL
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Top climate scientists offered Western governors an assessment on the impacts of global warming that sounded like something out of the Old Testament: drought, wildfire, floods and pestilence.
More importantly, the governors themselves put to rest any remaining doubt on a human role in the problem.
"Are there any respected scientific organizations left that dispute what you are saying?" asked Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., adding, "and you can't say the White House and Congress."
"Where there is skepticism, it is coming from an increasingly small number of individuals who have some kind of ax to grind," of a moral or religious point of view, said Christopher Field, director of global ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington. "There is not a reputable organization in the world that opposes the core conclusions."
The scientists' briefing Tuesday only reinforced what the Western Governors' Association that represents 19 Western U.S. states had been hearing during the three-day conference. Greenhouse gases spewed by automobiles and coal- and gas-fired power plants are increasing Earth's temperature. Global warming of even a few degrees causes flooding in coastal cities, deadly urban heat waves, longer and more severe droughts, and possibly the onslaught of tropical diseases, such as malaria.
The governors must grapple with how the policies of their individual states can impact a global problem with solutions that will take 10 to 50 years to put in place, the scientists said.
"In 2007, we have to design an energy system for 2050 to 2100," said Field. "That will require incentives and leadership."
Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal asked, for instance, if nearly sacrosanct Western water laws would be a barrier to adapting to global warming.
"Most of the water systems are already over-allocated. Somehow there have to be shifts," Field said. "A lot of current water law makes it difficult to make those changes."
Freudenthal, incoming chairman of the Western Governors' Association, vented some of the frustration his colleagues share in making policy to meet the almost-apocalyptic predictions.
"You're asking us to base policy on your data. How damn sure are you of this data?"
The scientists acknowledged that while the science is good, more information needs to be gathered and analyzed for detailed local projections.
"If we were really sure, we wouldn't bother to monitor," said Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy's chief scientist.
"We are not going to reduce the growth of need in energy and we need to understand the economics of it," Freudenthal said later. "It is important we move aggressively on this. But whenever we would push (energy experts about) how much will it cost and how soon it can be done, the discussion became less precise."
Freudenthal and incoming vice chairman Huntsman pledged to keep the group focused on high energy costs and climate change.
"It is clear that this is certainly the issue of our time and it makes no sense for us to ignore what is the 900-pound gorilla of policy decisions," said Freudenthal. "We are looking for the silver lining in a black cloud."
oil and warming
Don't worry. It turns out we are running out of oil very soon. Problem solved!
peak oil won't solve everything
I'm afraid that anonymous is too quick to say we are fine because of so-called 'peak oil.' That's the idea that oil reserves are finite, we are close to half-way through all the oil in the ground, and as M. King Hubbert theorized, oil production tends to follow a "bell curve" that peaks around half way then starts to drop progressively faster as the resource becomes ever scarcer. This idea has not convinced everyone, but it is starting to get some more attention.
Lately it has become popular to suggest that if peak oil comes soon, as the more pessimistic peak oil believers hold, then we will in effect "run out" of CO2 sources and thus global warming will be averted. There are a few problems with this reasoning. First, we still have huge amounts of coal. Burning coal to produce electricity is very CO2-intensive. China is reputed to be adding coal fired power plants at the rate of about one a week; second, there is an existing, proven way to convert coal to liquid fuel, and there is every likelihood that this will be applied extensively once conventional oil does start to become scarcer. One U.S. senator recently commented that anyone opposed to coal-to-liquids had better accept the fact that it is going to happen. If we do adopt that approach on a large scale, the pressure to move off of liquid fossil fuels will be reduced, and CO2 emissions could continue to grow for a long time.
Thirdly, just the CO2 from past emissions plus the remaining known oil, gas and coal in the ground will be enough to cause serious problems from severe weather, sea level rise, drought and crop stress.
Richard Heinberg, a popular author on peak oil, has an essay on the connection between peak oil and global warming that's available on the web.
But the best source I've read on this has to be the latest book by energy policy expert Joseph Romm entitled Hell and High Water. This is an excellent read, covering an overview of the threats posed by climate change with very current science news, followed by a history of the policy debate in the U.S.
One important point Romm makes is that a "hydrogen economy" is decades away at best, and pinning all our hopes on some technological miracle is bad planning; we mainly need to start right now applying the energy saving options already in hand, including: higher CAFE standards for cars and trucks (including personal troop carriers i.e. SUVs); much greater energy efficiency in buildings new and old (LEEDs, net-zero-energy buildings that place no net demand on outside energy sources, already demonstrated); and moving away from long commutes alone in huge private vehicles toward more public transit, living closer to where we work, cycling, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and so on.
We have plenty of tools to apply to this challenge; we simply need to get moving to use them all, with a proper sense of urgency.
Cheers everyone and let your political leaders know what you think on this important topic.
My God We're All Going To Die!
Something must be done immediately to avert disaster. Stop and scrap the drill rigs! Turn off the taps at the wells and pipelines! Turn off the power plants! Let's all return to farming in a new agrarian society! No animals though because they fart - and farts contain methane. So slaughter all the animals!!! Then euthanize all non-believers to reduce the human population - then we work down down from there until only those deemed worthy of living are left (environmentally friendly types of course). IMMMEDIATE ACTION NOW!
What!?
Are you some kind of idiot!? I hope all that was some kind of joke, how do you think the population will react to throwing away all electrical appliances and reverting back to an agricultural society? And also, exterminating animals makes me just think that you ARE stupid. Animals are an important food source. If you want to go do this, go buy a space of land and live in your own way.
Oh and killing people that aren't eco friendly? You sound like some kind of modern day Hitler
your a nut
im responding to the "omg were all going to die" maybe thats true, but your wierd a*s is not going to stop it. you think we should slaughter all the animals, your crazy...your a tree hugger...well im a bear hugger and i think your crazy...you need to be euthanized for saying to slaughter all the animals...stick a cork up your a*s and stop farting becuase god forbid its only natural. you selfish pig. nature will take its coarse but it is not going out of its way to save you! that really pist me off.....
Uh, dude, he was only
Uh, dude, he was only joking. Are you seriously stupid enough to think he was serious -.-
i dissagree with you and agree with him
To a point i actually agree with him other then the point of killing the non eco friendly population. but if the entir world would revert back to a purely eco friendly society most of the population who are to relient on technology will die off anyway. plus. with reverting back to primitive technology we also loose alot of the populous there for we move back to a manage able population and the earth can start healing.
Global Warming itself is a disaster
All this hype about forthcoming disasters from a one degree increase in temperature is greatly exagerated, and those who buy into it are generally not trained scientists. Human contribution is a very small part of this small increase. Support for this so-called crisis comes most from pro-government regulation politicians who see this as a way to expand government control over society, as well as those whose income derives from taxpayers. Nuclear power is now the most environmentally safe source for power and it is essentially sustainable 24/7! Expanding nuclear power plants will reduce CO2 emissions and solve these so-called crises. Truly we are governed by the least capable among us.
peak oil won't solve everything
If you are worried enough to start telling other people how to live their own lives based on politics, then you are simply too worried.
Quote: When you add politics to any formula, you are guaranteed to get an unbalanced equation...
Scott
Hills of VA
Lots of Oil, Too Litttle Freedom
"It turns out we are running out of oil very soon. Problem solved"
What problem?
Canada has more oil in tar sands than all of Saudi Arabia's know reserves, Deep wells in the Gulf of Mexico suggest that the primary sources of oil are abiotic and, for all intents and purposes, limitless.
The most precious commodity on the entire planet is human freedom and attempts to extinguish it are manifest in every lout who tells you that he or she needs to help you plan your life to better serve the gods of nature.
In reality these people are dangerous religious zealots who will be burning people at the stake one day as self ordained "protectors of the faith (nature, god, etc)"
Survival of the Fittest
Survival of the Fittest baby.. Global warming is a great opportunity for evolution and local adaptation to see its true self.. Darwin was right, those pesky whiny liberals are going to be the weakest, dying of over exhaustion due to complaining to the Government and the media. That makes me want to go out and take the cadilic converter of my 74 Ford Oil burner and fumigate the liberals as tough conservatives will adapt to the climate change, put up big wind turbines on the cattle ranches and install giant outside air conditioners with the hot air exhaust pointing at the wilting liberal neighbor yelling nasty words at you while you sit in your A/C diesel tractor...
Global Warming might be a good thing
Truthfully i think Global Warming might be a good thing, our atmosphere is messing up and we need something to clean it but what; well soon there will be extra water lying around for the sun to evaporate that means more humidity with all the extra water in the air it might be possible that all the extra Carbon might be absorbed by plants also; this might be a great opportunity for the human species to evolve you know survival of the fittest and all. With the atmospheric change new types of organisms could come about that will aid us in becoming one step closer to the Greatest being in existance but its just a theory everything is a theory if we want to get technical lol... I think nature is just taking it course and we can do is just get ready for a battle that none of us can avoid. It is said that Humans can prolong their own extinction lets see if we really are GODS greatest creation...... lol
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