Sadr militia returns

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By MARTIN SCHRAM
Tuesday, April 03, 2007

They're back.

The Mahdi Army, the militia once solely controlled by the devoutly anti-America Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, has reportedly oozed back into the Sadr City section of Baghdad that is a prime target of the new U.S. strategy the Bush administration calls a surge.

What that means is that _ despite the way-too-early pronouncements of success by President Bush's top spinners (not to mention Sunday's desperation overreach by Joyless John McCain, which we'll discuss later) _ we may soon get our first real look at whether Bush's surge is working.

For seven weeks, U.S. troops had cautiously crept (never surged) into Sadr City with a goal of ridding that low-income Shia neighborhood of a militia that has waged death and disruption in what is now clearly an Iraqi civil war. U.S. forces suffered few casualties. Indeed, they engaged in few clashes of urban combat.

Bush officials cited the low casualty levels as evidence that the controversial surge _ a buildup that will now total more than 30,000 new U.S. troops _ seemed to be working.

But we know to beware of government statistics. Robert McNamara taught us (the hard way) that governments can use statistics in wartime to create a paint-by-the-numbers rosy picture that bears no resemblance to war-zone reality. And that's what just happened in Iraq's Sadr City. It is now clear that when the U.S. troops entered that sector, the Shia militia just disappeared among the civilian population in the initial days of the U.S. surge.

Only a week ago did the new ominous reality surface. And even then, it surfaced in a way that most Americans may not yet know it. "Militiamen return to Sadr City," said the Page One headline in The Washington Times, one of the few newspapers that played the story where it belonged. The lead by correspondent Sharon Behn reported:

"Shi'ite militiamen, who melted away from Baghdad when U.S. and Iraqi troops began their security crackdown seven weeks ago, are rolling back into the city with fresh Iranian training, Iraqi and other officials said.

"It is not clear whether the radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is in control of the newly trained group, which some Iraqis describe as a 'secret army' trained and equipped by Iran."

But due to misjudgments and underplays by decision-makers in most major U.S. news media, the story somehow was not considered worthy of its own front-page headline or its prime-time airspace on the TV news. Word that the militia had returned _ apparently to put the surge to its first real test _ was put way down deep in Iraq-war stories that led with other angles. Until April 3, when The Los Angeles Times gave big play to its own story that reported elements of al Sadr's militia have broken away from him because they did not want to cease attacks and lay low; they have reportedly returned to fight and are now apparently under the influence of Iranian militants. Slate Magazine's daily news digest hailed the L.A. Times for its "scoop," which was basically what the Washington Times had on March 30.

Meanwhile, a bizarre photo op and press conference in Baghdad last weekend during an all-Republican congressional visit wound up showcasing Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the once-but-no-longer GOP presidential front-runner.

The 2000 campaign's joyful straight-talking maverick candidate has restyled himself as a conservative mainstreamer, hoping to be seen as a GOP winner. But he has tumbled in all ways _ in the polls, in fund-raising, and mainly in good humor and campaign-trail joy. McCain, who once rightly blasted Bush for sending too few troops into Iraq, now seems desperate to grasp at any brass ring that might be labeled success on the Iraq merry-go-round.

At the Baghdad session with journalists, the sort of gaggle he had eating crumbs from his hand in 2000, he seemed curt, bitter, gruff _ and borderline absurd. McCain insisted that Iraq's streets and the outdoor market he just toured was now plenty safe. Huh? The market area was heavily guarded for this antiseptic congressional visit _ a point Baghdad merchants derisively made to a New York Times reporter. McCain seemed not to realize he'd only been performing in a one-ring media circus.

America's still-unaccomplished mission in Iraq isn't about keeping congressional delegations safe. It is about making Baghdad safe. And now, with the Shia militia reportedly back and gearing up for a fight, America may get its first clue about whether this surge can ever work.

But so far all we know is that when there is no enemy to fight, our casualties can be quite low.