Nevada is moving up presidential caucuses

By MICHAEL J. MISHAK
Thursday, March 08, 2007

Nevada Republicans are moving their presidential caucus ahead on the 2008 calendar for reasons that go well beyond helping their party choose a nominee.

Rather, the party has its eyes on the general election. Republicans fear that enthusiasm over the state's Democratic caucus will put the Republicans at a disadvantage, with Democratic candidates dominating the public debate early in the primary season. The Democrats have moved their caucus to Jan. 19, immediately after the Iowa caucus. The new Republican date is Feb. 7.

"From a purely strategic standpoint, organizing your base, in my book, is just as important as giving the state an early voice," said Republican lobbyist Pete Ernaut, who is heading the party's caucus effort.

"This is a very close state in terms of registration and turnout. Allowing one party to organize this comprehensively without answering could be fatal to our political campaign success going forward.

"It wouldn't take but a gentle nudge to move this state from red to blue."

Nevada gave President Bush a 3 percentage-point victory over Democratic challenger John Kerry in 2004. But last November, Nevada Democrats captured four of the six state constitutional offices and narrowly lost two House races.

In the months since, the Democratic caucus has attracted visits from top-tier candidates. A forum in Carson City last month drew all of the Democratic candidates, with the exception of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, and produced an overflow crowd of several hundred activists.

The large response sent Republicans scrambling.

"If the Democrats get participation like they had in Carson City, I can easily envision this state going Democratic," said Dan Burdish, former executive director of the Nevada Republican Party.

Ernaut said he lobbied Republican leaders, including Nevada Sen. John Ensign, to move up the caucus date, which was initially set for April 26, 2008.

As a result, Republican elected officials and party leaders agreed to move the caucus date.

Still, party insiders and activists are split on the effect of a Nevada contest on Feb. 7, two days after Super Tuesday.

Five states have already scheduled Feb. 5 as their primary day and at least another dozen _ including California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois and Florida _ are strongly considering moving their dates as well.

The potential is that Feb. 5 would be transformed from "Super Tuesday" into a mega-primary, which presents significant fundraising challenges for candidates. If that happens, analysts say, there won't be much oxygen left for Nevada's Republican caucus two days later.

Carson City conservative activist Chuck Muth said the state's Republican caucus would be an afterthought for the presidential campaigns.

"I don't want to sit around and wait for the Democrats to roll over us in another election cycle, but holding a caucus after everything is already over doesn't make any sense," Muth said.

"It's absurd," said Charlie Cook, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. "A Nevada caucus on Feb. 7 won't be but a small burp. It's one of the most irrelevant things I've ever heard of."

Cook argues that the candidates who survive Super Tuesday will be broke and looking to replenish their campaign coffers for a "last gasp" effort in contests a week or so later. Nevada Republicans, he said, would be more influential by sticking with the original date of their contest.

Ernaut and other leading Republicans strongly disagree. They contend that Nevada could play a pivotal role if no clear winner emerges on Feb. 5.

Michael J. Mishak can be reached at michael.mishak(at)lasvegassun.com. For more stories visit scrippsnews.com