ShareThisWhat's next for Microsoft after Vista?
Scripps Howard News Service
Must credit the San Francisco Chronicle
By DAN FOST
San Francisco Chronicle
With the release of Windows Vista, Microsoft Corp. hopes another wave of hype can once again cement its position at the top of the technology world. But many others in the business, long accustomed to having to swallow whatever Microsoft serves, are looking further ahead and wondering: Is this the swan song for the desktop operating system as we know it?
Microsoft has dominated the tech industry for years, and it seemed the Earth would shake with each new release of its cash cow Windows operating system. But the Redmond, Wash., behemoth is under siege. The personal computer is giving way to mobile devices, operating systems are going open-source, and companies like Google are offering a range of competing software that doesn't rely on Microsoft's platform.
Is Vista _ arriving years late and the target of critics and hackers _ the last gasp of a dying giant, compounded by founder Bill Gates' withdrawal from the day-to-day business? Or is it yet one more example of Microsoft's ability to spend billions, borrow the best ideas and emerge atop the technology world?
Time will surely tell. But the threat to Microsoft will probably take a long time to make significant inroads, if it is ever successful.
"I think they are still the juggernaut they once were," said Brendan Barnicle, vice president and senior research analyst with Pacific Crest Securities. Barnicle does not own Microsoft stock, nor does his firm do banking business with the company. "Even with the success Apple has had, it has not changed the market data."
Indeed, Windows runs 845 million computers, according to a research report from Brent Thill, an analyst at Citigroup. Microsoft Office, the popular software that is also getting an upgrade, boasts more than 450 million users. Microsoft's old operating system, Windows XP, "is Vista's largest competitor," Thill wrote. Many users, especially corporations, are waiting for Microsoft to get the bugs out of Vista before jumping on the upgrade bandwagon, he wrote.
Barnicle said Vista's release won't have a big impact on Microsoft's financial picture. The company has done a great job of locking in the corporate market, which pays licensing fees, and that won't change, regardless of whether big companies stick with their old operating system or upgrade to Vista, he said. The consumer and small-business market "only impacts 20 to 30 percent of Windows revenue," he said.
The main challenge Microsoft faces is the way the Internet could ultimately do away with the personal computer. In the new era, analysts say, people are getting online with other devices, such as cell phones, personal digital assistants, MP3 players, game consoles and television sets. Microsoft's virtual monopoly on desktop operating systems, which once brought it a raft of trouble in the form of antitrust lawsuits, may no longer matter in this new world.
As the Web becomes a platform of its own, people can turn to free software to do the things they once had to pay Microsoft big bucks to do. Google seems most interested in moving into this territory. It has released or acquired a variety of products that compete with the elements of Microsoft Office _ Microsoft Word, Excel, Outlook and PowerPoint. Instead of charging users, Google supports its products with advertising.
Last year, Google acquired Writely, a free word-processing program, renaming it Google Docs and pairing it with its free spreadsheet offering. Its Gmail e-mail service could take on Microsoft's Outlook. Google's applications will run on any operating system.
"The operating system is less important than it used to be," said Michael Silver, vice president of research at Gartner Inc. "But the old stuff doesn't disappear all that quickly."
If you're running a big company, he said, you rely on Office, and you aren't ready to trust a free program to take its place.
Silver said the operating system of the future may indeed be more modular. Instead of paying a big chunk of cash to get a big chunk of software, consumers might get the software through a subscription that would be periodically updated over the Internet. Google's software operates this way.
Microsoft has taken the first baby steps in this direction, releasing Windows Live and Office Live. These are mostly free and ad-supported, but contrary to their names, they are not versions of the company's Windows and Office cash cows, but different businesses entirely. Office Live is a small-business service, and Windows Live is a set of online services such as search, e-mail and news updates _ the sorts of things people now get on, say, a personalized home page from Yahoo.
But analysts said that while that model is working for other types of software, the operating system is bigger and more complex. And while Microsoft may be losing ground to Google today, people who have watched Microsoft over the years don't usually like to bet against it.
"Does it take Microsoft a few iterations to get something like this right?" asked Silver. "Yeah."
E-mail Dan Fost at dfost(at)sfchronicle.com.
Offical from microsoft
Microsoft will be revealing the new operating system in June 16 2010 we call it Windows Starlight, it is completely new and has more options than ever all bugs are fixed,compatible with all previous Windows systems
For more info on
Microsoft Starlight
wait till June 16 2010
VISTA not user friendly
While most new users will not find vista all that hard to use(they dont know any better),the old guard will NOT find it user friendly, when compaired to xp. Vista makes it hard to get into settings and other program tweaks and if your used to xp you will have to hunt to find them. I think hybred vista/xp shound be there next step. GIVE the consumers what they want, is the way to sell products!
The time to sink the boot in is now
I know this article is a little old, and it's taken me a while to respond, but I have been fiddling with Vista since Beta 1 and haven't had any time to read or socialize...
I agree with Dan. When XP was released, it was the only realistic option for most people to access the web (other than a Mac). Vista is a lack-lustre waist of people's time and the ONLY reason people are using it is because Microsoft has discontinued XP. However, consumers do not appreciate being treated this way. I have been a Microsoft devotee since DOS 1.0 and have put up with all their heartache alone the way. Vista is the final nail in the Microsoft coffin as far as I'm concerned. I'm going out now to buy a MacBook Pro and an iPhone. Big deal I hear you say, but I've been working in IT for 20 years and have always been a supporter of Microsoft. Once I get the hang of the Mac, and influence others to do the same, it will creep into the corporate space that MS so heavily relies upon. Don't forget that MS Select Agreements and VOLP's only last as long as the customer is paying for them. If Apple are smart (and I think they're very smart) they should release an iPhone style device that can be docked at work and provide a KVM with WUXGA resolution that taps into the online word-processing and email facilties already available. The time to sink the boot in is now.
Other Options
We're reaching a point where other options are actually viable for the majority of home users today. For the moment, OS like Linux can deliver what you "need" if you want to run a program, which will do one thing to many companies in the industry:
Get off their backsides. It wasn't so much a monopoly run my M$ that maintained Microsoft for all this time; it was savvy marketing that suggested Windows was the everyman OS. Anyone could use it, it was nonthreatening, didn't require knowing a file address to open a program, etc. Just point, click and play around.
As Windows opened the PC to the world at large, however, it also made its customers familiar with PCs. In the 1980s, they were strange contraptions that 1 person in a neighborhood might have, 1 in a town might actually need. In the 90s, they were still something of a curiosity; oft seen but still avoidable.
Today, everyone has one, uses one or has been exposed to one. And with that familiarity comes the next act of normalcy from all types of consumers: gimme more for less.
More features for less money. If Microsoft continues to cram everything under the sun into their OS, and in turn sell it at a bloated price, then no; it won’t survive. Any more than Main Street survived Wal-Mart. Why will customers buy an OS that has everything on it when they can find it for free, download it in seconds and have it installed and running in the amount of time it would take to open the pretty wrapper from the brick and mortar? If consumers have taught us anything in recent decades its that they are well able and willing to traverse the same acre of ground for hours on end if a bargain is promised in the offing.
The Internet may take up a little more room than a Supercenter, but its got all the ingredients to destroy the down home touch where money is involved.
I Like this
I like what i see here. i dont have vista myself but i realise the most it's good for is looking pretty and shiny. As said before xp is much more user friendly. And in todays day and age OS's are open source. For example: i own a PC running XP, a psp and a PS3 running Ubuntu Linux Which has a lovely user interface by the way (similar to XP but way better). Having said this, my point is that i rarely rely on my pc.
Work - done on my ps3 linux
Videos - Done on my ps3 linux or my PSP
Music - PS3, PSP.
Games - done on my ps3 using the PS3's OS or my PSP. Internet - PSP, PS3. Those are the basic things done on a computer. So back to the topic on Vista the only real reason to get it is if You REALLY need it, which you probably wont (not now at least). Then theres the question, "Is vista even finished being made?" Vista has a good few bugs and glitches you don,t find on XP. One annoying one is the browser shutting down unexpextedly (right in yor face!) on my dads DELL XPS.
Bank index
Personally, I think that online banking is overrated and I am a little bit suspicious of online banks in general. I come from a generation that used to go to the high street bank branch and do all my transactions face to face with a human being. But today, this is becoming rare and so banks are becoming faceless internet empires, using our money to gain capital growth. I think most of the online banks listed on the bank index at sites like http://www.dozenbanks.com are safe but some of the smaller, international e-banks are more open to identity fraud and security issues.