Handicapping the Sundance Film Festival

By BRANDON GRIGGS
Thursday, January 18, 2007

Of the 120-plus movies that screen at the Sundance Film Festival each January, the most scrutinized are the 16 features battling for the U.S. dramatic competition jury prize.

With apologies to the documentaries and World Cinema films, these 16 are the movies the media buzz loudest about, because, 1) nobody knows anything about them, and 2) they usually are filmmakers' debuts, so everyone wants to witness the creative birth of the next Soderbergh or Tarantino.

Predicting which film will win the Grand Jury Prize, however, is an inexact science. Historically, the five Sundance dramatic-competition jurors are an unpredictable bunch prone to honoring low-budget underdogs, often with unknown actors, that otherwise might go overlooked. Look at last year's out-of-left-field winner, "Quinceanera." Or 2004, when jurors bypassed "Garden State" for "Primer," a dense, talky mystery about guys building a time machine in a garage.

So which feature will win the 2007 festival's biggest prize?

Let's handicap the race, based solely on the movies' subject matter, film-guide descriptions and Sundance award history (no, we haven't seen these movies, either). Here goes:

"Adrift in Manhattan"

_ Heather Graham as a grieving New York mom. Sundance jurors mostly overlook star-driven films. And can Heather Graham really act? Odds of winning: 25 to 1.

"Broken English"

_ Parker Posey in a romantic comedy. The only thing Sundance likes less than star vehicles are romantic comedies. 50 to 1.

"Four Sheets to the Wind"

_ A young Native American moves from the rez to the big city. Pro: Sundance jurors like stories about minorities. Con: The film guide calls it a "heartwarming valentine." 20 to 1.

"The Good Life"

A small-town guy finds escape in his local movie theater. With a cast that includes Bill Paxton, Harry Dean Stanton, Chris Klein and Zooey Deschanel, this may not need an award boost. 18 to 1.

"Grace is Gone"

John Cusack must tell his two young daughters their mom has been killed in Iraq. Pro: The film guide calls it "the best anti-war movie of this troubled time." Con: That star-driven thing again. 16 to 1.

"Hounddog"

_ This disturbing drama has already drawn controversy for a Dakota Fanning rape scene. May be too touchy for jurors' tastes. 22 to 1.

"Joshua"

_ An unorthodox horror story disguised as a family drama. Sounds original, but Sundance doesn't honor horror movies. 25 to 1.

"Never Forever"

_ Vera Farmiga torn between two Asian-American lovers. The film guide calls it an "unforgettable cinematic experience." The film guide has been known to exaggerate. 30 to 1.

"On the Road with Judas"

_ This narrative puzzle is described as "a film based on a real novel, written by a writer, played by an actor, about the real characters and the actors playing those characters in this story." Got that? Sounds very Sundance, though. 9 to 1.

"Padre Nuestro"

_ A thriller about two newly arrived Mexican illegals who swap identities in New York. Hmm: Latino themes. A cast of unknowns. Sounds like an award favorite! 8 to 1.

"The Pool"

_ A drama, set in India, by the director of the cult documentary hit, "American Movie." Shot in Goa with a cast of Indian actors, it may be, at least on paper, the most distinctive film of the lot. 6 to 1.

"Rocket Science"

_ The director of "Spellbound," the spelling-bee doc, returns with this teen comedy-romance. The "Spellbound" pedigree is promising, but it's hard to make sardonic teen comedies fresh. 12 to 1.

"Snow Angels"

_ Sam Rockwell and Kate Beckinsale as a troubled couple, directed by David Gordon Green. Green is already an acclaimed filmmaker, which by Sundance logic should doom his chances. 20 to 1.

"Starting Out in the Evening"

_ Fading New York novelist Frank Langella grapples with two women in his life. Based on an acclaimed novel. Ho-hum. 17 to 1.

"Teeth"

_ A young Christian virgin discovers she has teeth in her vagina. Sundance likes its movies to be a little weird. But maybe not this weird. 25 to 1.

"Weapons"

_ A raw, violent look at blue-collar suburban youth culture. Sounds like an edgy, provocative Sundance hit. . .from, oh, about 1994. But hey, what do we know? 14 to 1.

(Brandon Griggs can be contacted at griggs(at)sltrib.com)