What might have been _ and still can be

By JAKE CURTIS
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
We have reached the stage when college football teams start lamenting the details that ended up costing them dearly. So we devote all four of our R's this week to Regrets.

Regret I: West Virginia laments Rutgers' loss to Cincinnati, which hurt West Virginia more than it did Rutgers. If Rutgers had won that game and its next game against Syracuse, West Virginia could have assured itself a BCS berth by winning its final two games against South Florida and Rutgers. If there were a tie for first in that case, West Virginia would win a two-team tie with Rutgers based on its win over the Scarlet Knights, and would have won a three-way tie with Rutgers and Louisville because it would be highest-ranked team.

Now, however, Louisville would have to lose one of its final two games against Pittsburgh or Connecticut for the Mountaineers to have any chance for an automatic BCS berth. If Louisville wins its last two, and West Virginia beats South Florida and Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia would finish tied for first, but Louisville would win the tiebreaker based on its win over the Mountaineers.

More distressing for the Mountaineers is that West Virginia could finish ranked fourth or fifth in the Associated Press poll and not get a bid to any BCS game. That seems impossible this season, with four at-large BCS berths instead of two, which was the case last season.

But follow this scenario, if possible: After the six conference champions get their automatic berths to the five BCS games, four at-large spots are available. Michigan will get one of those, and Boise State, which is currently No. 11 in the BCS standings, would get an automatic berth if it finishes in the top 12. Notre Dame is assured a BCS spot if it finishes in the top eight, and the Irish would do that with a win over USC and might end up in the top eight even if they lose to the Trojans. That leaves one BCS opening, and West Virginia, at 11-1, would have a good shot at that.

But if West Virginia does not finish in the top four of the BCS standings (and its poor computer ranking makes that a distinct possibility), the Fiesta Bowl would have the option of taking the Arkansas-Florida loser instead of West Virginia, and the Orange Bowl could take home-state team Florida rather than the Mountaineers if the Gators fall in the Southeastern Conference championship game.

The weird thing is Rutgers' loss did not hurt the Scarlet Knights much. If they beat Syracuse and West Virginia, they still will get an automatic BCS berth, which is probably the best they could have received even if they had beaten Cincinnati.

_ Regret II: Now Cal really regrets that loss to Arizona, which, as it turns out, probably cost the Bears a Rose Bowl berth as much as Saturday's loss to USC did.

Here's why: If USC wins its final two games against Notre Dame and UCLA, the Trojans probably will finish No. 2 in the final BCS standings and play in the Jan. 8 national title game against Ohio State. That would leave the Rose Bowl with two at-large selections. With a 10-2 record, including a loss to USC, the Bears probably would have finished among the top 14 in the final BCS standings, making Cal eligible for the Rose Bowl. And it's a pretty good bet the Rose Bowl would have picked the Bears.

However, with a final 9-3 record, Cal has little chance of finishing among the top 14. It leaves the Bears in the Holiday Bowl, probably against the loser of the Big 12 championship game, with a Cal-Nebraska matchup a strong possibility.

_ Regret III: San Diego coach and former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh, wishes his team's season finale at Cal-Davis had been scheduled for Nov. 18 instead of Nov. 25.

Despite being the nation's only unbeaten Division I-AA team, and despite being ranked No. 1 in I-AA in both scoring offense and scoring defense, and despite having QB Josh Johnson, who leads I-AA in passing efficiency and total offense, the Toreros did not receive one of the eight at-large bids issued Sunday for the 16-team I-AA playoffs.

The Toreros' problem is that they are one of the few I-AA teams that don't offer athletic scholarships, and no non-scholarship team has ever earned an at-large berth. The selection committee determined that San Diego's schedule was not strong enough to warrant an invitation, and the Toreros might have rectified that by beating UC Davis, which owns a 45-0 road victory over Montana State, which got one of the eight at-large spots.

_ Regret IV: No. 25 Hawaii might regret being located five time zones west of the East Coast. The Rainbows are 9-2 after their 54-17 win over San Jose State on Saturday, and their scoring average of 49.2 points would be the eighth best in Division I-A history. Plus, quarterback Colt Brennan has a passer-efficiency rating (189.6) that would be an NCAA record, and he needs only seven touchdown passes in the final three games (including a bowl game) to set an NCAA record for TD passes in a season.