Rating the pundits ... Blue dogs ... Thanksgiving costs

By LISA HOFFMAN
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
So how good were those election predictions put forth by all manner of pundits and professors?

First, here are the congressional results: Democrats will control 51 seats in the Senate to the Republicans' 49. In the House, Democrats are forecast to hold 232 seats when the seven contests still in flux are finally decided. The GOP is expected to ultimately control 203.

Here are the picks of some of the few experts brave enough to lock in specific numbers:

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and perennial talking head, predicted a 51-49 Senate under Democratic control, and Democrats owning the House with 230 seats to the GOP's 205.

The Evans and Novak Political Report: Senate: 50-50. House: Democrats 223 to GOP 212.

Ken Mehlman, outgoing Republican National Committee chairman: Senate: 50-50. House: Democrats 226 to GOP 209.

ElectionProjection.com: Senate: Democrats 51 to GOP 49. House: Democrats 219 to GOP 216.

Indiana State University's Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (who used computer models to make these predictions in early October): Senate: GOP 52 to Democrats 48. House: Democrats 223 to GOP 212.

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Democratic control of the House could bring back clout and new partners for the Blue Dog Coalition, a bloc of moderate and conservative Democrats who focus on bipartisan cooperation to hold down spending, increase government accountability and promote national security. These Dogs will have 44 in their pack when the new Congress convenes in January, a jump of about 25 percent.

But the fortunes may not be so bright for the Tuesday Group and the Main Street Partnership, caucuses for the socially moderate but fiscally conservative Republicans. Rep. Charles Bass of New York, a leader of both groups, was one of about 10 members of the coalition either turned out by voters or retiring from Congress. They now will be less than 40 strong in total. The two groups have held talks about collaborating, perhaps under the amorphous banner of the Tuesday Dogs.

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The average cost of this year's Thanksgiving feast for 10 is pegged at $38.10, up $1.32 from last year. The American Farm Bureau Federation said higher prices for turkeys, cranberries and sweet potatoes account for much of the higher cost, which is almost $10 more than the $28.74 price tag of the same meal 20 years ago, when the federation first calculated the feast's price tag.

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Seems some of us don't need to go over the river and through the woods to Grandmother's house, since we're already living there.

A survey of seniors ages 62 to 75 found that 19 percent said their grown children were living with them. About 11 percent said they have grandkids residing under their roofs as well.

A survey of seniors ages 62 to 75 also finds that about half of them are helping their kids with such things as financial support, baby-sitting and college tuition.

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If you are traveling, the skies promise to be crowded around Thanksgiving, according to the Air Transport Association. An average of more than 2 million passengers a day will be traveling on U.S. airlines globally from Nov. 17 through Nov. 28. And the industry predicts a 3 percent increase in travelers over last year, meaning most planes will be more than 80 percent full.

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Enormous photographs of genocide victims in Darfur will greet passersby on foot and in vehicles along one of Washington's busiest routes Thanksgiving week. The wall-sized images will be projected onto the outside facade of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, which is sponsoring the project to spur awareness _ and outrage _ at the continuing violence and escalating humanitarian crisis in Sudan.

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QUOTABLE:

"Goodbye! Goodbye! Goodbye! You don't run this place. You think you do. But you don't." _ Soon-to-be-former Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., when asked by reporters this week about the status of an appropriations bill.

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