ShareThisBy DAN K. THOMASSON
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Will all those who believe Illinois Sen. Barack Obama should make a serious run for the 2008 Democrat presidential nomination please raise their hands? Now will all those who believe that he should step aside for the likely frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, do the same?
It looks like a fairly even split.
Now let' try this. How many believe it is more than past time to put an African American in the Oval Office? Let' try a woman. Hmm. Everybody has raised his hand on both questions. OK What about this particular black and this specific woman? Ah ha! I sense some hesitation here.
Well, this was just an early straw poll and all of you will have ample opportunity to make up your minds _ actually about two years worth of opportunity _ beginning not much later than January when the run for the White House starts in earnest. For the Democrats, at least, the decision will center on the questions above. The answers won't be easy. Obama is the freshest face to come along in either party for some time and Clinton has shown she can be a powerhouse fundraiser with superstar status and universal name recognition.
So what is the hang up?
Obama may be considered too inexperienced and Clinton too tarnished by her White House travails. While that may seem unfair to both, it is part of what each must consider in deciding to seek the nomination. But it is only half the equation. The other half is the fact a definite residue of anti-black and anti-woman bias tragically still impacts the American election process. Together these two factors could be enough to cost their party a chance to duplicate its recent congressional victories and retake the White House two years from now.
Despite the generally high marks she receives for her Senate participation and as a prodigious vote getter in her adopted home state, Clinton carries with her a negative factor that is disturbingly strong. Some demographers estimate as many as 25 percent of the voters would not back her for the presidency under any circumstance, either because they would not vote for a woman or they dislike her tolerance of her husband's peccadilloes and suspect she may have stayed aboard to further her own ambitions. There are many women among those who reject her out of hand for that reason.
Obama is hurt by a presumption that he is just another in a long line of hopefuls who think they're ready to run the country five minutes after winning election to the Senate. Albert Gore in 1988 and John Edwards in 2004 come to mind. Obama is clearly more attractive and better known than either Edwards or Gore were when they ran the first time. He made a brilliant keynote address at the Democrat National Convention in 2004 and has been at the top of the presidential speculation list since. He was a much sought after campaigner for the party's congressional candidates this year.
Can he afford to wait with the chance that a shot at the Oval Office just might be eight years away if another Democrat is elected in 2008? At 45, he has time to gain the experience and overcome most of the racial intolerance to make him a truly viable candidate. On the other hand, he already is in the rock star strata and like a young athlete who has a choice of making millions of dollars or finishing college, he could legitimately opt for the immediate future. Who could blame him when one misstep can sidetrack political ambitions overnight? Ask Virginia Sen. George Allen.
Interestingly, in early match ups with the likes of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Clinton comes off second best. Although Rice is not a candidate at this point, there are those who believe she might be a potential vice presidential nominee for the Republicans, particularly if either Clinton or Obama or both are on the Democrat ticket. Her presence as a "twofer" _ woman and black _would be a bit of one-upmanship hard to match. Rice carries less baggage for her participation in the administration's tarnished Iraq policy than most of the Bush team.
So here we go folks into a new year of political maneuvering that could be as tumultuous as any seen in sometime. Let's just hope that decisions aren't based on race or gender when we're next asked to hold up our hands.
