ShareThisBy CAROLYN LOCHHEAD
Monday, November 13, 2006
Democrats are nearly giddy at their prospects for retaking majority control of the Senate.
"This is the harbinger of a wave," predicted Sen. Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat who heads his party's effort to retake the Senate, pointing to Democratic gains among independents in Arizona.
Recapturing the Senate _ a glittering prize that could dash President Bush's hopes for cementing a conservative majority on the Supreme Court _ was a wild Democratic dream as recently as August. Yet the nation's top political forecasters now conclude that five GOP seats are likely to go to Democrats _ and that the magic sixth they need to retake control is within reach.
Long overshadowed by the battle for the House, where Democrats appear close to winning, Democratic capture of the Senate would have huge repercussions, even if held by a hair. The Senate has exclusive power to approve presidential nominations, including judicial appointments. When combined with a House majority, taking the Senate would give Democrats a monopoly on Capitol Hill and its powerful committee chairmanships, providing a potent check on Bush's power, much as Republicans kept Democratic President Bill Clinton under tight rein after they swept both chambers in their 1994 landslide.
A Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress also would thwart White House political guru Karl Rove's long-standing goal of using the Bush presidency to shuffle the country's partisan makeup and create a permanent Republican majority.
Control of the Senate is "hanging by a thread," said Jennifer Duffy, analyst for the Cook Political Report. Cook now puts Democratic wins at a minimum of four, with "five or six most likely."
The Rothenberg Political Report sees Democrats "most likely to win from five to seven seats. ... We believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate."
The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato predicts a six-seat Democratic gain in his Crystal Ball report.
If these predictions hold _ and Sabato repeats his familiar caution that "he who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass" _ it would mark a devastating turnaround in GOP fortunes from just two years ago, when Republicans captured four Senate seats on Bush's coattails, including that of Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota. Now it is retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's Tennessee seat that is in contention.
The political winds are blowing in exactly the opposite direction this year, driven by the Iraq war. The races are pivoting on national rather than local issues, just as Democrats hoped. "It's about the war, and it's about Bush," Duffy said.
Republicans hold a five-seat Senate majority, 55 to 44, with one independent voting Democratic.
Democrats have singled out these seven Senate seats, now held by Republicans, as their best chances for victories Tuesday that could propel them to majority control. Republicans now hold 55 seats to 44 for Democrats and one independent.
Missouri: Incumbent Republican Jim Talent faces Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill.
Montana: Incumbent Republican Conrad Burns versus Democratic state Sen. Jon Tester.
New Hampshire: Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee takes on Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, a former state attorney general.
Ohio: Incumbent Republican Mike DeWine faces Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown.
Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Rick Santorum against Democratic state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr.
Tennessee: Republican Bob Corker takes on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr., to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Bill Frist.
Virginia: Incumbent Republican George Allen faces Democrat Jim Webb.
(E-mail Carolyn Lochhead at clochhead(at)sfchronicle.com.
