ShareThisBy JAKE CURTIS
Thursday, November 16, 2006
The scramble is on, and the debate intensifies.
About 10 teams have a chance at the national championship as a result of Rutgers' 28-25 victory over No. 3 Louisville on Thursday, an outcome that provokes more questions than answers:
_ Is Rutgers a contender for the national title? It seems like an absurd notion. The Scarlet Knights were one of the worst teams in Division I-A football a few years ago, going 1-11 in 2002. Last season, they had their first winning season since 1992 and landed their first bowl berth since 1979. They were not ranked in this year's preseason Top 25, and the USA Today coaches preseason poll placed them 41st, behind the likes of Nevada and UTEP.
Now Rutgers is one of four unbeaten Division I-A teams, and that number will dwindle further after Michigan plays Ohio State on Nov. 18. The other unbeaten team, Boise State, is not in a BCS conference, which virtually eliminates the Broncos from the national title discussion.
Rutgers is currently 13th in the BCS standings, a long way from a top-2 finish. The Scarlets Knight will move up at least few spots this week in the USA Today and Harris polls, and the computer could be Rutgers' best friend. The BCS computers ranked Rutgers ninth this week, and a victory over unbeaten Louisville should boost the Knights further.
For Rutgers to finish unbeaten, it would have to beat West Virginia in Morgantown in the Knights' finale, but beating the Mountaineers would elevate the Scarlet Knights in both the polls and the computers.
_ How much will margin of victory matter in the race for a national championship game berth?
How much it will matter is conjecture, but it will matter. Although the BCS computers don't take margin of victory into account, the pollsters in the USA Today and Harris rankings, which make up two-thirds of BCS formula, certainly do.
If, say, Florida or Texas wins its remaining games by large margins, that team could move up in the rankings and squeeze into the national championship game. Rutgers' chances of reaching the title game probably depend on how impressive some of those one-loss teams are in their games.
_ Does Cal have a shot at the national title?
It's a long shot, but not impossible. The Bears currently rank eighth in the BCS standings, but two weeks ago Louisville was No. 8 and the Cardinals were up to No. 3 when they lost Thursday. The Bears must wow the pollsters with decisive wins in their three remaining games, and hope a few teams above them stumble.
It is noteworthy that ESPN commentator Lou Holtz said at halftime of the Louisville-Rutgers game that he thought Cal was the best one-loss team in the country, and that may sway a voter or two.
Cal, Florida, Texas, Auburn, Arkansas, Ohio State, Michigan and Notre Dame all have a reasonable shot at a national title berth, and Rutgers and Arkansas are in the discussion.
_ Could Ohio State and Michigan meet in the national title game?
It is indeed possible that the national championship game could be a rematch of the Nov. 18 Michigan-Ohio State game, especially if that game is close. If Ohio State loses, pollsters will be reluctant to drop the Buckeyes more than a few spots, and the computers treat a loss at the end of the season the same as one at the start, making it possible for Ohio State to finish at No. 2 despite losing.
