ShareThisBy JAMES O'TOOLE
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Democratic celebrations over a tide of victory are tempered by debate over whether the gains reflected an enduring political trend or were one-time dividends from an election fought against the backdrop of an unpopular war and a climate of scandal.
Democrats made net gains not only in Congress but in legislative and governor's races across the country, wins built on improved showings with virtually every demographic group measured in exit polls.
Pennsylvania was a prime example of the Democratic resurgence with twin landslides for governor and senator. The state's U.S. House delegation will flip from a 12-7 Republican advantage to an 11-8 Democratic edge, and gains in the state House appear to have left the Democrats just short of reversing what had been a robust Republican majority.
The Pennsylvania picture was part of a particularly strong showing for the party in the Northeast, allowing some partisans to maintain that the region was exhibiting a long-term political shift analogous to the Southern realignment toward the Republicans that took place from the 1970s through the 1990s.
"The Northeast is the new South," Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Pa., said last week, arguing that his party, even if Iraq were to fade as an issue, would be able to continue to count on near solid support from the Mason-Dixon Line through New England.
"The Northeast is going to be tougher and tougher territory for Republican conservatives, no question about that," said Richard Vigurie, the veteran conservative activist and direct mail fund-raising pioneer.
Vigurie, who blamed his party's national losses on an abandonment of conservative principles, foresees a "war for the heart and soul of the Republican Party," in the wake of Tuesday's reversals. That's a conflict he welcomes, though he acknowledged it could be problematic for the moderate strain of the party.
"It's going be tough sledding," he said. "That kind of renewed battle will put us at odds with many of the Republicans in the Northeast."
But Vigurie scoffed at the notion that Tuesday's results forecast long-term Democratic gains nationally. He argued that, in contrast to the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994, Democrats this year lack any positive message of their own.
Still, Democrats made gains with groups that had supported President Bush in both of his elections. The new congressional majority party did better among young voters. It won the Catholic vote. And Democrats for the first time in years captured a majority of suburban voters.
Karlyn Bowman, a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, said it was significant that exit polls found that suburbanites, who accounted for 47 percent of the votes cast, favored Democratic candidates by a margin of 51 percent to 48 percent. According to her compilation of historic exit poll data, that was the first time that Democrats won a majority of suburbanites since former President Bill Clinton's first election in 1992.
Asked whether Tuesday's results suggested a fundamental political realignment, Bowman said, "I think you have to be extremely cautious about over-interpretation nationally. There's some very important movement in the Democrats' direction but they still have real problems in the South."
Of the Northeastern states, she noted, however, that, "The Democrats have a significant advantage ... that's a change historically."
Democrats nationally won a majority of the Catholic vote that the president had captured in 2004 and they significantly narrowed the large deficit among evangelical voters that Sen. John Kerry had faced.
The preferences of more religious voters, like those of the crucial suburbanites, may be only transitory. In addition to the issue of Iraq, many voters Tuesday told pollsters they were concerned about controversies over ethical and moral scandals in Washington, notably the investigation of questionable contacts between former Rep. Mark Foley and congressional pages.
