ShareThisBy JOHN HALL
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
There was no October surprise _ on the order of a few peaceful weeks in Baghdad that President Bush might have interpreted as good news.
Instead, Iraq was in such turmoil in the final days leading up to Tuesday's midterm election here that some are saying control of both houses of the American Congress could be affected.
The U.S. death toll for October reached 104, the fourth deadliest month of the war. President Bush said the enemy's intention all along was to affect the American election.
Bush's political strategy, however, has depended on national security during both of the last two elections to carry his party though. The Republicans were counting on this one, too. But, stealthily, Iraq became a millstone for them.
Last week may have provided the most ironic example of all.
American troops coiled up barbed wire and ended a siege of the Sadr City slum district of Baghdad. Supporters of the anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr celebrated their victory in the streets and Washington's cave-in.
Then, in a bizarre development, the U.S.-backed ruler of Iraq, Prime Minister Yuri al-Maliki, won praise from al-Sadr's followers for standing up to the Americans and forcing them to back down. Bush had cooperated in that effort to make al-Maliki a hero before al-Sadr's anti-American followers.
While it may make perfect sense to Iraq's Shiites and maybe even to some U.S. officials, it didn't make a bit of sense to the minority Sunni Muslims and to some U.S. troops. The Sunnis live in fear of murder and torture by the black-clad militias and secret groups claiming to be part of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, who reportedly roam the streets at night seeking revenge.
The death squads had been locked in behind the barricades for a few days. Now they were free to roam.
American troops obey their orders. But the violence to come may just be a fraction of what Baghdad has seen, according to the top-ranking Sunni leader in Iraq.
Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi said when Americans lifted the siege, they and the Iraqi government "sent the wrong message to those who stand behind terrorism in Iraq," Reuters reported. "It says the iron fist will loosen and they can move freely."
But the attitude of the ruling Shiites is that the Mahdi Army and other militias aren't the main enemy. The Baathists and remnants of Saddam Hussein's government _ all Sunnis _ are the ones who want to destroy the political process, the governing Shiite leaders insist.
Newsweek, in a special report on Iraq, reported that Iraqi officials increasingly have been denouncing the actions of U.S. soldiers to win popularity. Then, in a double game, they privately egg on U.S. commanders to take stiffer action against the Mahdi Army and other militias.
The result is predictable. Newsweek estimated the proportion of the Iraqi population who now support attacks against U.S. troops has risen to 61 percent.
How to get American troops out of this bedlam became not just a Democratic preoccupation during the campaign, but a concern of a few Republicans as well. Stalwart backers of President Bush from deep red-state country began to reflect misgivings about the war and Bush, himself, seemed distressed in recent days, although unchanged in his conviction to stay the course.
The charge, nevertheless, that war critics wanted to "cut and run" from Iraq reverberated in this campaign, just as it had from that of another Texan, Lyndon B. Johnson, at the onset of the Vietnam war.
Former Sen. J. William Fulbright, D-Ark., used to call that phrase "cattle talk," but it stuck.
Democrats didn't offer a lot during this campaign in the way of an alternative to Bush's failing policy in Iraq. What many of them did put forth was bigger defense budgets and more force than even Bush had proposed as the solution to problems in the war on terrorism. Few in the party wanted to risk being identified as soft on defense.
That charge was frequently leveled against Democrats by Bush himself. But the president's falling popularity weakened his punch. But toward the end he was joined in the ring of disabled politicians by Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who took himself off the hustings for gaffe tendencies.
(John Hall is the senior Washington correspondent of Media General News Service. E-mail jhall(at)mediageneral.com.)
