ShareThisBy SHARON SCHMICKLE
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
As voters get ready to take control of Campaign 2006 on Tuesday, many agree with Deanna Bredt that it's high time to decide.
"The more political ads I see the more I don't know what to do," Bredt said.
As a suburban Minneapolis mom who leans Republican but still screens candidates thoroughly, Bredt fits into one of a handful of key pockets of swing voters that pollsters and other analysts say can be difficult to predict, yet may have a significant effect on how the election suspense ends.
Despite predictions that some conservatives might not vote, anger permeating today's political atmosphere is likely to drive a high overall turnout for a non-presidential election year, said Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate.
In 2004, deep emotions about the presidency of George Bush, both pro and con, helped propel the highest national turnout since 1968.
If anything, emotions run stronger now, Gans said.
With a number of races looking like dead heats, the differences could come down to several groups of voters who are restive this year or emerging as new political forces.
Voting Catholic Values
Key point: Catholics make up one of the nation's largest groups of swing voters, and many are disillusioned this year after favoring Bush in 2004, said the Rev. Thomas Reese of Georgetown University.
As much as Sarah Hogan opposes abortion, the issue is not driving her Election Day choices.
"Candidates use moral issues to get votes, and when they get into office, they don't do anything about those issues," said Hogan, 19, a student at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul.
Voting a Catholic conscience is a balancing act. It might mean aligning with Republicans on abortion but not on the death penalty. And many of Hogan's friends at St. Thomas decide by the numbers, saying there are more abortions than executions each year, so they will vote Republican.
But for other Catholics across the nation, opposition to the Iraq war is tipping the balance toward Democrats, Reese said.
Hogan is focusing on the war as well as on education and foreign policy.
"I'm a traditional Catholic in that I'm absolutely against abortion," she said. "But I'm undecided. I'm reading, listening ... and checking the candidates' Web sites."
Suburban Women
Key point: "They are a volatile group," said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn.. "They tend to be loosely affiliated with political parties but attentive enough to be regular voters. That's why they get lots of attention."
Call them soccer moms or security moms or whatever label fits this year. But you have to call suburban women a tough sell for candidates from both parties.
Deanna Bredt of Rosemount, Minn., said she leans Republican. But no candidate gets a free pass with her.
"I don't think any of them have handled their responsibilities very well," said Bredt, 38, who works in administrative sales and is a mom, too. "You have to look to one person to find out why your property taxes are so stinking high.."
Downtown Neighborhoods
Key point: New communities of downtown homeowners are potentially influential in legislative and local races, perhaps more independent than in the past.
In the seven years since Duane Reed moved to downtown Minneapolis, he has watched condos and lofts around him fill with independent-minded voters.
"It's very difficult to predict who will control the vote here," said Reed, 58, a retired Cargill executive who now leads the Minneapolis NAACP.
The key question is whether a bent for urban living goes hand-in-hand with liberal political views.
Don't count on it, Reed said.
"I think the majority of the people here will vote for the candidates they like whether they are Democrats or Republicans," he said.
Immigrants
Key point: Immigration may be a volatile issue, but immigrants _ Somalis, Hispanics and others _ who have recently gained citizenship are emerging as a respected new force at the polls and their votes are up for grabs.
In the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, Republican Mark Kennedy and Amy Klobuchar, the Democrat, have visited community centers where Somalis are getting crash courses in the practice of democracy. Kennedy's Web site features a photo of his meeting with Somali elders.
Beyond their voting numbers, immigrants serve as a measure of a candidate's values, said Carleton College political scientist Steven Schier.
For their part, the Somalis are looking for official action on such issues as education, housing, reunification for families that were scattered by war and the ability to transfer money to relatives back in Africa.
No single party can count on the Somali vote, said Hashi Abdi of the Somali Action Alliance, which is working with the League of Women Voters in an education campaign.
Like politically savvy lobbyists who contribute to both sides, Abdi said "what we are looking for mostly is a relationship, no matter who wins."
