ShareThisBy GEOFFREY YORK
Sunday, November 19, 2006
The North Korean soldier slipped quietly out of the bushes and edged onto the bank of the narrow, muddy river that marks the Chinese border. He stood there silently until a Chinese cigarette vendor spotted him.
"He's coming here for cigarettes," the vendor said. "The soldiers often come here, looking for things. They're so poor."
A visitor bought a carton of Big Harvest brand cigarettes and walked with the vendor to a spot where the river is just a few yards wide. When they were close enough to the soldier, they checked that none of his superior officers were watching. Then they tossed the cigarettes across the river. The soldier grabbed the carton and disappeared into the bushes.
North Korea's soldiers are better fed and better sheltered than most of their compatriots, yet they are still so impoverished that they suffer the humiliation of accepting cheap gifts, often from gawking Chinese tourists who toss them over or hand them across the border from tour boats passing near the shore.
The gifts are a kind of metaphor for North Korea's growing dependence on Chinese goods _ including official exports, donated food and fuel, and even a black-market smuggling business along the border.
But with other countries cutting off aid because of their outrage at Pyongyang's nuclear program, the Chinese assistance is not enough. Relief workers are warning that North Korea is facing its harshest winter in years. Malnutrition, already at frighteningly high levels, could grow worse over the next winter and spring, according to the U.N. World Food Program.
In June, the World Food Program appealed to the world community for $102 million to pay for 150,000 tons of food over the next two years. So far, it has received only 12 percent of the funding target, and it estimates that 3 or 4 million North Koreans are failing to get enough food.
North Korea needs an estimated 5.3 million tons of grain to feed itself every year. Its harvest this year was the worst in the past three years, leaving it about a million tons behind its basic needs. After the winter, it will face another "lean season" as it waits for the next harvest. Foraging for wild grass and bark will again be common.
"The winter will be particularly harsh and difficult," said Jean-Pierre de Margerie, a Canadian who is the World Food Program's chief representative in North Korea. "And next year's lean season will be longer and harsher. There are going to be food shortages and it will probably be worse than the previous two years."
The North Korean regime has revived an old system of food rationing, but the World Food Program has received reports that the ration is not fully distributed in some regions. The country was hit by devastating floods this summer, leaving up to 60,000 people homeless and destroying about 90,000 tons of grain. And countries such as South Korea and Japan have suspended their food aid to North Korea because of its nuclear test this month.
"The perfect storm may be brewing for a return to famine," the International Crisis Group, an independent non-profit organization, reported last week. "With food shortages threatening to return to famine levels, migrating to different cities or to China will be one of the coping strategies used by hungry North Koreans."
All of these factors are heightening North Korea's dependence on China. While there is some evidence that China has reduced its food aid to North Korea this year, its overall trade with North Korea has doubled in the past five years. And the unofficial smuggling routes are also flourishing.
