ShareThisIn a twist that has energy experts bemused and confused, gasoline prices have been climbing for the past month on the premise that the economy will get better, motorists will increase their driving, and demand for gasoline will increase.
Trouble is, gas consumption in California and the United States remains relatively flat, and unemployment in the Golden State tops 12 percent.
"It's playing a bigger role than in past years, this idea that the economy is starting to pick up, which would drive demand higher," said AAA spokesman Michael Geeser. "But it's just speculation. There's no evidence of it."
Evidence or not, the idea has driven oil prices beyond $80 a barrel lately, and gas prices have risen accordingly.
AAA said the average price of unleaded regular gasoline in California on Monday was $3.10 per gallon, up from $3.08 a week ago and $2.92 a month ago. On March 22 last year, it was only $2.15.
In Sacramento, Calif., AAA said the average price of unleaded regular on Monday was $3.07, up from $3.05 last week, $2.87 a month ago and $2.13 last year.
Although its survey area differs from AAA, SactoGasPrices.com, a GasBuddy.com Web site, reported the same steady climb.
It said the average retail gas price in Sacramento rose 4 cents per gallon the past week to $3.04 on Monday -- up 17.8 cents from a month ago and 91 cents from a year ago. Its average state price was $3.08.
Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com, agreed with AAA's Geeser --- upbeat speculation about the economy is driving up prices.
"It's on the speculation side more than demand," DeHaan said. "That's why we're having these kinds of up and down daily changes. "... For now, I would say it's overblown, with investors thinking that the economy is all rosy. Then the next day, things are not all that rosy."
Geeser said the mixed economic messages -- the stock market has been on a roll, but jobless rates remain high nationwide -- are actually holding down gas prices.
"I think it's much like track runners are in their blocks waiting for the gun to go off, but then there are a bunch of false starts and they have to come back to the blocks," Geeser said.
DeHaan and Geeser noted that refineries are switching to more-expensive spring and summer gasoline blends, an annual occurrence that routinely drives up prices. And historically, prices start heading up before Memorial Day, the traditional kickoff of summer vacation driving season.
Asked if California gas prices could hit $3.50 a gallon by Memorial Day weekend and perhaps head toward $4 by the Fourth of July, Geeser said "They certainly could, but they certainly might not. We just don't know how it's going to be with the economy."
DeHaan speculated that California motorists could be "looking at $3.35 to $3.50 a gallon by Memorial Day," given the trend of rising prices.
(E-mail reporter Mark Glover at mglover(at)sacbee.com. For other stories, visit www.scrippsnews.com.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
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