Turkey's Election and Strategic Role

The parliamentary elections in Turkey Turkey Facts on Sunday have resulted in a very decisive victory for the ruling moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (generally referred to by the Turkish initials AKP), as well as a very valuable opportunity for United States foreign policy. The Iraq war has been particularly threatening to the traditionally close relations between Ankara and Washington.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the election in May, after the parliament rejected his nomination of Moslem foreign minister Abdullah Gul to be president of the country. Since Turkey’s revolution in the 1920s Ataturk Revolution , the constitution has required secular government. The army plays a watchdog role, occasionally intervening in heavy-handed fashion, though not in recent decades. The religious AKP so far has been careful to remain within this boundary.
The ruling party will continue in office with a reduced margin. The party secured 46.6% of the vote, more than achieved in elections five years ago. Because of a complex system for allocating seats, their share of the 550 seats in the Grand National Assembly will likely be reduced to 340 from 363.
The AKP nevertheless dominates the other parties. The secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), which controlled national politics for many years after the revolution led by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in the 1920s, won 20.8 percent of the vote and approximately 100 seats. The conservative National Movement Party (MHP), which presses for aggressive action against separatist Kurd forces, won 14.3 percent and approximately 70 seats. There will likely be 28 independent members, representing primarily the Kurdish minority.
Religion, ethnicity and economics have been prominent in much media commentary on the election. Islamic extremism has led many observers, especially in Europe and the U.S., to fixate on signs of such contagion in Turkey. Terrorist efforts in Europe since 9/11 have achieved decidedly mixed results but constantly reinforce such public anxiety.
The European Union has turned Turkey’s application for membership in the organization into seemingly endless agony. No doubt concern about Islamic extremism contributes to the atmosphere of suspicion. However, more general longstanding European prejudice against external populations undeniably is involved. Condescension combined with inertia is reflected in the very slow motion attending Brussels Eurocrats’ handling of Ankara’s application. EU President Jose Manuel Barroso’s quick congratulatory message to Erdogan must be viewed in this light.
Yet Turkey’s commitment to representative government so far has proved an effective counter against al Qaeda and other extremist movements, and dramatic economic growth and development will continue even if formal EU membership is not soon secured. The AKP is committed to political moderation.
Turkey’s primary importance, to the U.S. and other nations, remains geostrategic. The government in Ankara has placed priority on good relations with Israel as well as Arab states. The U.S. invasion of Iraq, opposed by Ankara, has quite badly strained but not broken the bilateral alliance.
Ankara-Washington cooperation is very strongly rooted in history. Turkey’s military has been actively engaged in Afghanistan, including command responsibilities. During the first Persian Gulf War, U.S. B-52 bombers were deployed on Turkish soil, a potentially risky move by Ankara. Turkey played a vital Allied role during the Korean War; the UN military cemetery at Pusan contains a notably large number of Turkish graves.
This background is of great importance. Erdogan has threatened to invade northern Iraq if discussions involving Ankara, Baghdad and Washington to restrain Kurdish separatists are unsuccessful. The Bush administration should give the highest priority to avoiding direct clash with the nation which, along with Israel, is our most vital ally in the region.
Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College and author of ”˜After the Cold War’ (NYU Press and Palgrave/Macmillan). He can be reached at acyr@carthage.edu