ShareThisWhether playing it back over a single weekend or an entire season, deja vu rules college football like the house rules Vegas.
Flash back to Week 8, 2007, when some real unusual suspects occupied lofty spots in the Top 10 of that season's first BCS standings: South Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky and Arizona State, at Nos. 2, 6, 7 and 8 respectively.
None had the staying power. South Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky went into a free fall, dropping out of the polls altogether by season's end. Arizona State finished at No. 13 in the USA Today poll and 16th in the Associated Press poll.
Now play it forward to 2009. A different four unusual suspects have surfaced in the Top 10 of this season's first BCS standings: Boise State at No. 4, Cincinnati at No. 5, Iowa at No. 6 and TCU at No. 8.
Like the 2007 foursome, Cincinnati wasn't even ranked in the preseason polls. Iowa was No. 21 in the AP's and No. 22 in the USA Today's, but the Hawkeyes quickly fell out after barely getting by Northern Iowa, 17-16, in their opener. They didn't reappear until Week 5, on the heels of a 21-10 victory over then No. 5 Penn State.
Boise's high standing isn't terribly surprising. The Broncos were ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll, and have received a considerable boost from a season-opening 19-8 victory over Oregon. The Ducks have won five straight since, and are No. 11 in the BCS.
Unfortunately for Boise, fourth is about as good as it gets. There's not enough mileage left in that win over Oregon for the Broncos to make it to the BCS title game in Pasadena. Any other BSC bowl game would be a fair reward even if the Broncos finish unbeaten.
Turning the clock back to last season provides a good indicator of what lies in store for Boise. Remember Utah?
Five teams with a single loss finished ahead of the unbeaten Utes in the final BCS standings. And you could easily argue that 2008 Utah team played a much tougher schedule than Boise's this season.
As for Cincinnati, it's not likely the 6-0 Bearcats will do a South Florida-like nosedive. Saturday's homecoming game against Louisville shouldn't be a problem, nor should the following week's game at Syracuse.
The Bearcats might even climb as high as 2 or 3 in the standings, if they beat Connecticut and No. 23 West Virginia at home on back-to-back weekends in November.
But a Dec. 5 road trip to No. 20 Pittsburgh looms. And that brings us back to 2007, again.
West Virginia was ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings. The only thing that stood between the Mountaineers and a trip to the BCS title game was Pittsburgh. The Panthers were 29-point underdogs on that fateful Dec. 1 in Morgantown. They won, 13-9.
If it's not deja vu, why does it feel like we've seen it all so many times before?
It's hard to take the unusual suspects for real when it comes to playing for the BCS title, because the usual suspects are always the ones that get there.
Since the BCS' inception in 1998, Oklahoma has played in four title games; Ohio State and Florida State, three; Florida, LSU, Southern Cal and Miami, two apiece; Tennessee, Texas, Nebraska and Virginia Tech, one. Get the picture?
Okay, so maybe Iowa could fuzzy it. But there's a better chance Michigan State will bring it into focus Saturday in East Lansing, hand the Hawkeyes their first loss and reinforce the rule. If not, Ohio State will likely do the deed Nov. 14 in Columbus.
It's just not in the cards for Iowa, not by house rules.
As for the usual suspects, "cakewalks" may pose their biggest threat. Remember USC getting upset by Stanford, 24-23, at home in 2007? The Trojans were 41-point favorites.
No. 1 Florida, No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Texas are all playing unranked opponents this weekend. The Gators are at Mississippi State, the Tide hosts Tennessee and the Longhorns are at Missouri.
As for an upset watch, there's not likely to be one, but the Vols do have an outside shot of turning the Tide in Tuscaloosa.
More dangerous trap games are set for Oct. 31: Texas at Oklahoma State; Nov. 14: Florida at South Carolina; and Nov. 27: Alabama at Auburn.
Playing it forward, Florida beats Bama for the SEC title and Texas for the BCS title. Remember? Deja vu rules.
Cincy, Iowa, Boise and TCU simply can't beat the BCS house. It's not in the cards.
Deja vu for Notre Dame? The Unbalanced Line doesn't think so. Saturday in South Bend, the Irish finally end their six-game losing streak to Boston College.
(Email John Tucker at jtucker(at)unionleader.com)
(E-mail John Tucker at jtucker(at)unionleader.com)
UNBLANCED LINEcolumnMust credit New Hampshire Union LeaderColumn
