Tucker: Battle in 'Bama winner will likely clinch BCS title spot

Forgive the folks in Tuscaloosa this weekend when their Southern hospitality gets overshadowed by the mutual hostility that comes with the rivalry between No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama.

With a likely BCS title shot at stake, the intensity surrounding Saturday night's slugfest in Bryant-Denny Stadium is magnified tenfold.

It's the most anticipated regular-season game since at least 2006, when No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 2 Michigan, 42-39, in the season finale in Columbus.

From a rivalry standpoint, Bama-LSU can't touch Ohio State-Michigan.

But the showdown in Tuscaloosa brings something more -- it's an SEC battle, and just for a reminder: SEC teams have won the past five BCS championship games.

The Battle in 'Bama features two of the game's premiere coaches: Alabama's Nick Saban and LSU's Les Miles. Both have won BCS titles at LSU, Saban in 2003 and Miles in 2007. Saban also has a 2009 national championship at Alabama.

Alabama-LSU has a higher level of intrigue and excitement because of how similarly the Tide and Tigers measure up.

Both have tenacious, hard-hitting defenses that are definitely not for the faint of heart. Their secondaries are so good that New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick would probably swap his team's for either, if he could.

Breaking the game down, statistically and otherwise, Bama has the edge for a few reasons:

--The Tide's top-ranked defense is yielding a paltry 180 yards and 6.9 points per game; LSU's fourth-ranked unit is giving up 251 yards and 11.5 points per game.

--'Bama's offense is averaging 458 yards and 39 points per game; LSU's, 372 yards and 39 ppg.

--Tide workhorse and Heisman contender Trent Richardson, who is averaging 6.6 yards a carry and has scored 17 touchdowns, will be the best running back on the field.

--And, of course, Alabama has home-field advantage, which is huge in a game of this magnitude.

The Unbalanced Line's call: Alabama 23, LSU 17.

Whether or not the loser of the Tuscaloosa showdown will be able to climb back into national title contention will depend on how close the game is, and how far the loser drops in the polls and computers.

Crazier things have happened, for sure. In 2003, Oklahoma was routed by Kansas State, 35-7, in the Big 12 Championship game, yet still managed to get a spot in the BCS title game. The Sooners lost to LSU, 21-14.

Sometimes, there's just no rhyme or reason for what happens in college football.

No. 20 Texas Tech pulled off the biggest upset of the season by beating then- No. 3 Oklahoma in Norman Oct. 22, only to get routed by 4-4 Iowa State, 41-7, the next weekend at home.

The loss seemed to have ended Oklahoma's national championship hopes -- it dropped to No. 9 in the BCS standings and trailed seven unbeatens, plus No. 7 Oregon at 6-1.

But the picture changed Saturday after Oklahoma obliterated then-No. 8 Kansas State, 58-17, and Georgia Tech upset then-No. 5 Clemson, 31-17.

Suddenly, the Sooners have found themselves right back in the thick of BCS title contention.

Sitting at No. 6 with national championship implications in several games still to be played, Oklahoma is definitely in position to climb to No. 2 and make a fifth BCS title game appearance.

Another unexpected development comes from the Big 10, where No. 16 Penn State is the only remaining unbeaten team in conference play.

That's actually not hard to explain. PSU hasn't played No.10 Nebraska, No. 15 Michigan, No. 17 Michigan State, No. 20 Wisconsin or Ohio State.

Penn State has struggled against lower-tier conference teams, which doesn't bode well with upcoming games against Nebraska Nov. 12, at Ohio State Nov. 19 and at Wisconsin Nov. 26, especially with its red-zone paralysis and continuing quarterback frustrations.

Penn State fans were visibly perplexed Saturday when quarterback Rob Bolden entered the game against Illinois at the start of the second quarter with the score tied at zero. Bolden hadn't played the previous five quarters, which included the entire game at Northwestern. Quarterback Matt McGloin led a 34-24 win against the Wildcats, and fans figured coaches had finally settled on him as the full-time starter.

Bolden's first pass landed at the feet of a PSU receiver, and he was 0-4 passing and fumbled twice, one of which was recovered by the Illini at the Lions' 25-yard line.

McGloin reentered the game late in the second quarter, and didn't leave, leading a game-winning, 80-yard touchdown drive with just over 3 minutes remaining, in a 10-7 victory.

The coaching-induced quarterback dilemma at Penn State is about as mind-boggling as the BCS computers, which have Oklahoma State ranked No. 1, ahead of LSU and Alabama.

(Email John Tucker at jtucker(at)unionleader.com)

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