Trotter: Here are chances for every Oklahoma game

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Oklahoma enters the 2010 season with national championship expectations.

Even though the Sooners will be favored in at least of 11 of 12 games, the odds of an undefeated regular season are small.

Based on the "chances of victory" I gave for each game, the law of probability calculates OU's odds of going undefeated at about 4.5 percent.

The probability the Sooners finish either 12-0 or 11-1 is roughly 10.5 percent.

But getting there won't be easy.

The slate features nine teams coming off bowl appearances -- two that played in BCS bowl games.

Ranking OU's schedule from toughest to easiest, and the chances for victory in each game:

-- 1. Oct 2: Texas

The Longhorns have some question marks offensively, but the defense, featuring the top secondary in the nation, should be stout again. Texas also has the momentum, winning four of five over OU. Still, like most years, this game is almost a flip of a coin.

Chance of victory: 49 percent

-- 2. Sept. 25: at Cincinnati

The Bearcats lost coach Brian Kelly and QB Tony Pike, but OU better not take UC lightly. Zach Collaros started four games last season, and was so good he started a public debate over which QB should start when Pike returned from a broken arm. The Bearcats have also won 21 of their last 23 games at home, and while this game will be played at Paul Brown Stadium, home of the NFL's Bengals.

Chance of victory: 60 percent

-- 3. Nov. 6: at Texas A&M

The Aggies will have an explosive offense, spearheaded by QB Jerrod Johnson, an experienced receiving rotation and a pair of playmaking running backs. When the Aggies are respectable, it's no cakewalk playing in College Station, where Texas A&M averaged 40 points a game last year. Still, in the event of a shoot-out, OU's defense has a track record of coming up with key stops. Home or away, Texas A&M's does not.

Chance of victory: 65 percent

-- 4. Nov. 27: at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma catches the Cowboys at the worst possible time, as OSU will have plenty of experience running new coordinator Dana Holgorsen's offense by this point in the season. The Pokes might be rebuilding with a new QB, a new offense and several new starters on defense; but the Bedlam rivalry has become a dogfight in Stillwater the last 15 years.

Chance of victory: 70 percent

-- 5. Oct. 23: at Missouri

The Tigers were one fourth-quarter meltdown against Nebraska away from winning the Big 12 North last year. QB Blaine Gabbert is healthy, so Mizzou will be capable of putting up points. But the Tigers play OU in between road games at Texas A&M and Nebraska, meaning Mizzou won't be able to zero in OU.

Chance of victory: 70 percent

-- 6. Sept. 11: Florida State

The last time an ACC opponent came to Norman, the Sooners slaughtered Miami, 52-9, in 2007. But there's reason to believe the Seminoles will better than that UM team. QB Christian Ponder has gotten some pub for the Heisman, and he'll have a veteran offensive line protecting him. But whether the Seminoles threaten to win the ACC, or break OU's 30-game home-winning streak, depends heavily on how quickly coordinator Mark Stoops can turn around an awful FSU defense. That could take a while..

Chance of victory: 75 percent

-- 7. Nov. 20: at Baylor

OU has never lost to the Bears (19-0). But with QB Robert Griffin back in the saddle, a bowl berth may be on the line for Baylor when OU travels to Waco for the Bears' regular-season finale. That could be a dangerous scenario for the Sooners, who could find themselves caught looking ahead to OK-State the following week.

Chance of victory: 80 percent

-- 8. Nov. 13: Texas Tech

Mike Leach, the only coach other than Mack Brown to beat Bob Stoops three times, is gone. But the cupboard isn't completely bare for new coach Tommy Tuberville with seven returning starters offensively. But like most other offenses, Tech's has been shut down in Norman over the years, and a new coach or system won't be enough to change that.

Chance of victory: 90 percent

-- 9. Sept. 18: Air Force

The Academy has been no pushover lately. Thanks to a stingy defense and its unique style of option offense, Air Force won eight games last year. But in three years under coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force is 0-10 when giving up at least 29 points. Only twice in the Bob Stoops era has OU failed to score that many at home against a nonconference opponent.

Chance of victory: 95 percent

-- 10. Oct. 30: Colorado

The worst team in the Big 12 could be Colorado. But the surprise team in the league could be Colorado, too. On paper, there's no reason it shouldn't be the latter. The Buffs bring back QB Tyler Hansen, a decent running back in Rodney Stewart, an All-Big 12-caliber WR in Scotty McKnight, all five starters on the offensive line and seven starters defensively. Still, Colorado has shown nothing to indicate this program is ready to turn a corner.

Chance of victory: 96 percent

-- 11. Oct 16: Iowa State

The Cyclones are better than most are giving them credit for. But with arguably the nation's toughest schedule, they'll likely be beat up by the time they visit Norman. Iowa State played OU tough the last time the two teams met in 2007. And in beating Nebraska in Lincoln last year, the Cyclones proved they're capable of an upset. But chances are, it's not here.

Chance of victory: 97 percent

-- 12. Sept. 4 Utah State

This Aggie team is much better than the one blasted 54-3 by OU in 2007. But that's hardly enough..

Chance of victory: 99.9 percent

(Contact Jake Trotter at jtrotter(at)opubco.com.)

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)

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