Reader question/draft strategy

Q: I pick second in my fantasy league and have no idea about whom I want to pick. Larry Johnson seems like the most logical pick but I don’t know how he’s going to do since he missed so much time in training camp and their offensive line is nothing like it used to be. I thought about picking Shaun Alexander, but something about him doesn’t sit well with me. I just don’t feel that he is worth a second pick anymore. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson are also options that I have explored. So basically I’m stuck with Johnson, Gore and Jackson with Johnson leading the pack by a narrow margin. My second-round pick will obviously be the best running back available at the time, with Tom Brady coming with the third pick. I am almost certain that he will still be available. However I have been thinking about waiting to draft a quarterback until later rounds because Eli Manning and Alex Smith are looking very good to me and I think both of them are ready to break out this year. Tight end is another position that I am going to pick up in later rounds by going with Kellen Winslow or Randy McMicheal, whoever is still on the board. -- Lamar

A: Personally, I like Steven Jackson with the second pick. I was No. 2 in one of my drafts and took him there.

Jackson had over 2,300 total yards from scrimmage last year, and his goal this season is to break the single-season record for total yards from scrimmage. He touched the ball 436 times and lost just two fumbles. I also like to look at how a player finished the season last year to see what kind of momentum he might have, and no one was better than Jackson at the end of 2006. He had 10 total touchdowns in the Rams’ last four games (7 rushing and 3 receiving) while averaging well over 100 rushing yards and nearly 50 receiving yards per game. Those were his only three receiving TDs of the year, but I’m sure that the Rams are really going to use him more in the passing game this season after discovering how effective he can be. Plus, he's only 24 years old and has a lot more stamina than some of the older backs. I don't think I'd hesitate to take him with the second pick.

I agree with your strategy to take the best available running back with the second pick. Even in the smaller leagues, running backs are at a premium. I'm a big believer in waiting for a QB, but only because it's been successful for me in the past. Plus, I find that you can almost always find a gem late in the draft or pick up a decent QB off waivers during the season.

I got Donovan McNabb in the eighth round last year (everyone was worried about his injury and it was before the Eagles traded for Stallworth, so the thinking was he didn't have any decent receivers to throw to). My fantasy team took a big hit when McNabb went down for the season, but I think I was something like 7-3 at that point and had won largely because he played so well (Shaun Alexander was my first-round pick, so I was very lucky to be 7-3). I was then stuck with Brett Favre and Joey Harrington at quarterback, so I was forced to played match-ups and ended up 8-5, but made the playoffs because I had started off strong.

Plus, look at where these quarterbacks were ranked before the preseason last year: M. Vick, 13th; Drew Brees, 16th; Philip Rivers, 21st; and Jon Kitna, 24th. In most leagues, all four finished in the top 10 among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Other strong QBs that could have been picked up during the course of the season were Tony Romo, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Damon Huard. However, Ladell Betts and Maurice Jones-Drew were likely the only decent RBs available off waivers all of last season.

And do the math: if all 12 teams pick four running backs, that amounts to 48 running backs taken in the draft, only 32 of whom are starters (in theory, but of course running-back-by-committee is becoming more and more popular in the NFL). If all 12 teams pick two quarterbacks, that amounts to 24 starters, with eight starters still available on the wire. Notwithstanding trades, you’re pretty much stuck with the running backs you get on draft day, while you can easily garner another quarterback during the regular season.

I couldn’t agree with you more about Alex Smith and Eli Manning. I think both are undervalued this season and can be picked later in the draft, after other teams have picked their first QB and are filling up their rosters at other positions. So in my two main leagues I waited for a QB. In one league (12 teams, I picked fourth), I got Philip Rivers as my No. 1 quarterback in the seventh round and Alex Smith as my No. 2 in the 12th round. I really expect Alex Smith to be a big sleeper this season, but I know he’s way down the list on most draft sheets so if I waited he would likely still be there. My first six picks were four running backs and two wide receivers. Of course, I missed out on guys like Manning, Palmer, Brees and Brady as well as the top tier of tight ends, but should either or both of my top two RBs get hurt or underachieve, I’ve got a couple of good backups to fill in and keep me competitive. Plus, my bye weeks are covered.

In another league (10 teams, I picked seventh), my No. 1 QB is Matt Leinart (10th round) and my backup is again Alex Smith (14th round).This league awards 5-point bonuses for 100-plus rushing or receiving yards, so RBs and WRs are even more valuable and fly off the board. If you don’t grab those early, your season could be over before the first game is played. In hindsight, I might have waited one round too late to grab a quarterback, as I could have gotten Jon Kitna in the ninth round. I gambled that the six picks between my ninth and 10th round picks would be primarily wide receivers (three of them were) and that that the other three owners would wait another round before picking up backup quarterbacks, since each had studs at the position. I lost that gamble, though, as Kitna was grabbed immediately before my 10th-round pick. However, I knew that there were a couple more good quarterbacks I could live with. So I got Santana Moss and Matt Leinart while he got Bernard Berrian and Jon Kinta. During the season, I’ll be looking back at that draft moment and either kick myself or pat myself on the back.

Anyway, if it were me I think I'd go with a wide receiver in the third round. You should be able to get one of the top six guys there (e.g. C. Johnson, M. Harrison, T. Holt, S. Smith, R. Wayne or L. Fitzgerald), but by the time it comes back around to you in round four the best wide receivers will all be long gone. You won’t have Brady, but you could end up with 2007’s version of Drew Brees plus two top running backs and a stud wide receiver. Whoever grabs Brady or Brees early will sacrifice quality in either in a No. 2 running back or No. 1 wide receiver.