Not a Chance

I wonder what it feels like to Oscar nominees who have no chance whatsoever to win in their categories. Are they able just to relax in their sure-to-come disappointment and enjoy the awards season and the ceremony for what they are, or do they cling to some desperate half-hope that maybe some invisible late surge in momentum combined with hanging chads will grant them a win? Whatever the case, here are the people and films that have NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER to bring home Oscars come Sunday evening.

Best Picture: The Queen and Letters From Iwo Jima.

The Departed will probably win here, but a Crash-like Babel upset is not out of the question. Little Miss Sunshine is the lowest common denominator and could win if the vote is split, but The Queen and Letters have been cut off and dropped like Britney Spears' hair.

Best Actor: Everybody but Forest Whitaker, but especially Will Smith.

You just know Smith's ego is so big he thinks he has some sort of chance, and his handlers are telling him how great he is and how much he deserves to win. He'll win as many Oscars for The Pursuit of Happyness as he did for Men in Black 2.

Best Actress: Penelope Cruz.

Sorry, Penelope. You're the foreigner who gets invited to the party so all the voters can feel good about themselves for being so inclusive. No door prize for you.

Best Supporting Actor: Mark Wahlberg.

Marky Mark, when you made that embarrassing, bare-chested benchpressing "Good Vibrations" video, you eliminated yourself from ever possibly being labeled "Oscar winner Marky Mark." Also, your character in the Departed lifted his leg and simulated a fart noise. Your foul-mouthed smack-talking got you as close as you'll ever get to the prize.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett.

This category is the only true lock, with Jennifer Hudson winning in a landslide. Blanchett knows she can't win, even though she turned in an incredible performance that easily dwarf's Hudson's poor-little-fat-girl singarama. Blanchett has already won an Oscar, so she can't even be all that disappointed when she doesn't take home her second statue. You ever notice how Blanchett looks bored all the time? That's just the way her face is, but this time she really, really, really will be bored. If she looks at all interested at any time during the four-hour telecast Sunday night, it will take acting so good that the presenter will rip the Oscar out of Hudson's fingers and give it to Cate.