The latest on Gallup
Mark Penn, a strategist for Hillary Clinton's campaign, came out swinging against the latest Gallup poll calling it an "outlier" with other polls and "seriously flawed" for including independent voters who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup poll, did a very nice job defending his organization's methods. He accepts the notion that his poll, showing Hillary one percentage point behind Barack Obama, is alone among other recent polls that still show her ahead of the Illinois senator, but with a narrowing lead.
"That’s a fair observation. The poll is in fact an outlier compared to previous Gallup polling as well," Dr. Newport remarks in his blog at USAToday.com.
"In this type of situation it is essentially de rigueur that a campaign operative attempt to discredit negative poll results in order to try to prevent them from 'sticking' in the public consciousness. That’s the nature of the spin game in a competitive campaign," he says.
It is instructive to remember that polling is the science of estimating public opinion. There will always be outliers. It does appear that the latest Gallup estimate was that one in 20 that misses the margin of error, although time will tell.
It also appears that Obama is closing the range with Clinton.
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I don't think it's so much about the independent voters than about the date of the polling - 6/1-6/3 - BEFORE the Democratic debate on the eve of 6/3. You would have had to be unbelievably loyal (or in denial) if it wasn't clear to you that regardless of how you feel/felt about Hillary Clinton that she and Joe Biden were the most qualified to be president now...not 4-8 years from now as Obama (obviously too green) or Edwards (never - too lightweight) and Dodd (fine but he's got an uphill battle) or Richardson (experience but lacks the commanding presence that even Dodd has). Since Biden has no prayer of winning, that pretty much leaves Hillary. She was the only other one on that stage who was not only the most qualified but also probably the only person who can reverse the anti-Americanism that has pervaded the world. There is enough goodwill towards her and Bill Clinton around the world that she could hit the ground running.
It's clear that people are beginning to see this -- hence the movement in the polls this week -- hell, when even Fox shows her leading in double digits, it'd be silly not to dismiss the Gallup poll.