ShareThisBy EDWARD EPSTEIN
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
When presidential election returns are reported every four years, Indiana is among the first states to reliably and resoundingly fall into the red Republican column.
But beneath the presidential level, Indiana is a fiercely competitive state between Democrats and Republicans. And that's particularly relevant this year when a trifecta of House races in the state could hold the key to whether the GOP will keep majority control in the House or Democrats will eke out at least the net gain of 15 seats they need to seize the majority they lost in 1994.
The fact that the three GOP-held seats are competitive at this stage shows how Republican prospects have soured in 2006.
"No one would have put them on the map" of battleground seats if Republicans weren't in such trouble, said Amy Walter, House-race analyst for the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based political insiders' newsletter.
"All three are going to be close, and all three are leaning toward the Democratic challengers," said William Blomquist, a political scientist at Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis.
"The Democrats are ahead because of the war in Iraq, economic insecurity and anti-incumbent moods. But those won't necessarily carry you across the finish line," he added.
All three Democratic challengers are anti-abortion rights, pro-gun rights and, while critical of the war in Iraq, stop way short of calling for a U.S. troop withdrawal. All that hasn't stopped their opponents or national Republicans from trying to tie them to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the "San Francisco liberal" who would become speaker if Democrats take the House.
The two national parties and their allies are pouring money into the races, and they are expected to continue in the last heated days of the campaign.
Throw in a 5.3 percent unemployment rate that is well above the 4.6 percent national average, some only-in-Indiana local issues and the impact of an unpopular Republican governor who was once President Bush's White House budget director, and you've got a unique political brew.
Each of the three races has its own peculiarities:
_ The 2nd District in north-central Indiana runs south from industrial South Bend, home to the University of Notre Dame's Fighting Irish, through rich farm counties down to a little tail that includes Kokomo, the self-proclaimed "auto transmission capital of the world."
The race is a rematch from 2004, when the Republican, Rep. Chris Chocola, defeated Democrat Joe Donnelly, a lawyer and rubber-stamp-company owner, 54 percent to 45 percent.
The surest sign that Republicans realize they have a fight in the district is that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have visited to help Chocola raise money in his bid for a third term. First lady Laura Bush recently visited South Bend for a fund-raising luncheon.
_ The 8th District in south-central and southwest Indiana is more rural, but it includes the cities of Terre Haute and Evansville.
The incumbent is six-term Rep. John Hostettler, an outspoken conservative who in the current Congress won House passage of the Public Expression of Religion Act, which barred plaintiffs alleging that governments had engaged in unconstitutional displays of religion from collecting damages or legal fees.
Hostettler has had his controversies. A strong Second Amendment advocate, he was arrested at the Louisville, Ky., airport in April 2004 for carrying a loaded 9 mm Glock pistol in his bag. His explanation: He "completely forgot" the gun was there. But he won re-election, 53 percent to 45 percent.
He eventually agreed to a plea bargain of 60 days in jail with the time to be dropped if he stayed out of trouble for two years.
His opponent, perhaps the most potent he has faced in years, is Brad Ellsworth, the Vanderburgh County sheriff. Ellsworth recently hit a potential roadblock when it was alleged that he tried to use his influence to dismiss a speeding ticket that had been issued to his college-age daughter for going 83 mph in a 55-mph zone.
However, the local prosecutor who made the allegation is a Republican, raising charges of political motivations.
_ The 20-county 9th District is in the southeast part of the state, hugging the meandering Ohio River. In many ways, it's more Southern than Midwestern. The race is a bitter grudge match between GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel and former Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, who are facing each other for the third straight election.
Hill beat Sodrel in 2002 by 51 percent to 46 percent. But Sodrel bounced back to defeat Hill by just 1,400 votes in 2004.
The campaign has been notable for a new Hill television ad, one of the first tied to the House page scandal involving former Florida Rep. Mark Foley. In the ad, Hill calls on "millionaire Mike" Sodrel to return $77,000 in campaign contributions he received from Republican House leaders "who knew but did nothing to stop sexual predator Congressman Foley."
For all the talk of a national wave building in the House elections, local issues often can decide the outcome. In Indiana this year, there are some doozies tied to first-term Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels.
Daniels came up with the idea of leasing the Indiana Toll Road, which runs through Chocola's district as it crosses northern Indiana, for 75 years and a $3.8 billion payment to the state and pushed it through the Legislature after bitter debate. A Spanish-Australian consortium received the lease.
The toll-road deal is poison in Chocola's district, and Donnelly has done everything he can to keep the issue alive.
The other issue is even more arcane and stirs even deeper feelings. Indiana is divided between the Central Time Zone, which locals call "Chicago time," and the Eastern Time Zone, or "New York time." For years, Indiana counties had a local option on whether to use daylight-saving time. But Daniels pushed through a bill mandating daylight-saving time for all.
The result is anger and time confusion among western Indianans. In Pulaski (pronounced "Pul-ask-eye" in Hoosier), the schools can be in two different time zones much of the year, creating a daily challenge for families.
"It's caused complete chaos, and Chocola refused to stand up for us in this district," said Donnelly.
