Here are some early Oscar musings

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By PHIL VILLARREAL
Sunday, October 29, 2006
With "Flags of Our Fathers," "The Last King of Scotland" and "Marie Antoinette" opening in many cities this weekend, it's time for an early Oscar forecast. Based on what little I've watched, Internet buzz and (mostly) hunches, here is how I see things shaping up when the nominations are announced Jan. 23.

Release dates are tentative, and can vary from city to city.

Best Picture

"Babel" (Nov. 10) _ In the model of "Crash," cultures collide in this drama of interlinked tales. Nearly everyone who's seen it says it's on par with last year's best-picture winner.

"The Departed" (in theaters now) _ Martin Scorsese is an automatic Oscar stalwart. If he can get the lackluster "Gangs of New York" nominated, this masterpiece is a shoo-in.

"Dreamgirls" (Dec. 15) _ The buzz has been building over this fictionalized story of the Supremes for more than a year.

"Flags of Our Fathers" (Friday) _ Clint Eastwood is just "in" right now. He has enough of a following to get his throwback World War II drama honored.

"United 93" (on DVD) _ Should edge out "World Trade Center" as a symbolic tribute to the five-year anniversary of 9/11. It's the better film, although it lacks a big name like Oliver Stone in the director's chair or Nicolas Cage in the cast list.

Best Director

Pedro Almodovar, "Volver" (opening date TBA) _ With the "Viva Pedro" festival circulating the country, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences chooses to give the Spanish great his second Oscar nomination.

Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls" _ Some feel he was robbed of a nomination for "Kinsey" two years back. It's makeup time.

Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers" _ It'll be Eastwood vs. Scorsese in a rematch of the 2004 showdown.

Martin Scorsese, "The Departed" _ This time, the master will finally get to kiss Oscar _ not out of sympathy but because he's got the goods.

Oliver Stone, "World Trade Center" (DVD release TBA) _ Stone settles for the consolation prize in a director/picture split in his 9/11 commemorative race against "United 93."

Best Actor

Russell Crowe, "A Good Year" (Nov. 10) _ The film is said to be so-so, but Crowe has a way of commanding Oscar attention.

Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed" _ Although I thought Matt Damon was his equal in the Scorsese gangster drama; the zeitgeist says campaigners will throw their weight behind DiCaprio. If he isn't nominated for "The Departed," he may be for "Blood Diamond."

Peter O'Toole, "Venus" (release date TBA) _ O'Toole has been nominated seven times without a win (he received an honorary award in 2003). Film-festival-goers are saying this one should make No. 8.

Sylvester Stallone, "Rocky Balboa" (Dec. 22) _ OK, I used my heart instead of my brain on this one. But if Sly could nab a best-actor nom 30 years ago, why not one more round?

Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland" (Friday) _ Whitaker is the film. As of this week, he's the prohibitive favorite in this category.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, "The Good German" (Dec. 25) _ A 1940s noir-style drama is the perfect fit for Blanchett's ambiguous allure and curt delivery.

Penelope Cruz, "Volver" _ She'll prove to be more than just a pretty face under Pedro's direction.

Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls" (Friday) _ Knowles hasn't impressed the critics with any of her acting turns so far, but she may connect with audiences when she lets her singing ability do the talking. Besides, a token twenty-something-year-old usually snags a nom each year.

Helen Mirren, "The Queen" (Nov. 3) _ Her Britishness and daunting acting ability make academy members nominate her to the throne.

Kate Winslet, "Little Children" (release date TBA) _ Kate could join Leo on the podium for a "Titanic" reunion.