The Atlantic Coast Conference will release the full basketball schedule for the 2009-10 season this week, likely on Thursday, but we already know the nuts and bolts of the conference schedule.
On the three-year rotation, the slate of ACC opponents will be just like the 2006-07 season. That's good news for Virginia and bad news for Georgia Tech.
The prediction game is always tricky, but everyone can agree the fewer times a team faces North Carolina and/or Duke, the better. And conversely -- and teams have been known to exceed expectations -- you would like to see N.C. State and/or Miami as many times as possible.
There's going to be a large middle class in the ACC next season, with maybe as many as nine teams vying for an NCAA Tournament bid, so ocation, as always, matters. The chances of beating an experienced tournament team like Clemson or Maryland, are obviously better at home than on the road.
With that in mind, the in-conference schedule winners and losers:
WINNERS
-- Virginia: No one's trying to take away Virginia's share of the 2006-07 regular-season title or the fact that it won 11 ACC games, but in the two seasons since, the Cavaliers have won a total of nine conference games.
Now, that's not all a function of scheduling, but even Dave Leitao's mom would have to agree it played a part in the Cavaliers' success.
Just like 2006-07, new coach Tony Bennett will have the benefit playing North Carolina and Duke once each, and the Cavs don't have to go to Duke.
Virginia also gets four total games with N.C. State and Miami.
The schedule is there for Bennett to double last season's 4-12 mark.
-- Florida State: The Seminoles don't have to play Carolina or Duke twice. That's good. They also have three winnable home-only games in N.C. State, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
Even if they lose all three road-only games (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia), the schedule is there to win at least nine games and make back-to-back NCAA Tournament trips for the first time since 1992 and '93.
-- Virginia Tech: A home-and-home with UNC is offset by four total games with N.C. State and Miami. Plus the Hokies don't have to go to Clemson, Maryland or Wake Forest -- three of the tougher home courts in the conference.
It should be noted the Hokies' best mark (10-6) since joining the ACC, came against the same schedule in 2006-07.
LOSERS
-- Georgia Tech: Oddly, this was a plus and a minus for Tech in 2006-07. As the only team in the ACC with four games against UNC and Duke, Tech made the NCAA Tournament with an 8-8 ACC record, in part because of the strength of schedule.
The strength of schedule will help the Jackets again, as they attempt to improve from 2-14, but it also puts a ceiling on how far they can bounce back.
With Virginia's schedule, the Jackets would have a fair shot at winning the ACC. With theirs -- they also play Clemson and Florida State twice -- they will be lucky to win 10 games.
-- Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons do have four games against N.C. State and Miami, but they get North Carolina twice and three challenging road-only games in Duke, Florida State and Virginia Tech.
The home-only schedule (Boston College, Clemson, Maryland) is no picnic either. Even if they sweep N.C. State and Miami, the Deacs are going to struggle to find four more wins.
-- N.C. State: The bonus for the Wolfpack is two games against Virginia Tech, which it has beaten in six of seven games. The bad news is four games against North Carolina and Maryland and only one game against Miami (on the road).
(Contact J.P. Giglio at jp.giglio(at)newsobserver.com.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
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Must credit The News and Observer of Raleigh, N.C.
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