Georgia and National Interests

Georgia now is very much on our mind, including the Bush White House along with the wider United Nations community. The blunt, brutal and so far very effective Russian military invasion of that country, in response to Georgian intervention the breakaway province of South Ossetia, has created a major international crisis.
At this juncture, prospects for peace are uncertain. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has brokered a cease fire with Presidents Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia and Dmitry Medvedev of Russia. Combat, however, has not yet been ended.
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While world attention focuses on the heavy-handed actions of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, very little attention has been devoted to an equally worrisome situation on the western edge of the former Soviet Union. This is a mistake.
By invoking emergency authoritarian power, Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili has created a very dangerous situation, which could topple the state. When popular demonstrations massed against heavy-handed Saakashvili policies, thug police responded with water cannon, rubber bullets and repression. Critical media outlets were closed. The reported smashing of television equipment provides dramatic symbolism of a return to practices associated with Soviet – and Nazi – regimes.
The ominous side of Saakashvili rule actually predates the current crisis. Since he came to power, the rate of defense spending has escalated to among the highest rates in the world, at 22 percent of the budget and 7 percent of gross national product.
Saakashvili achieved power on November 22, 2003, leading the colorfully titled democratic Rose Revolution. Nearly a century ago, the communist Red Revolution spilled enormous amounts of blood. By contrast, horticultural Rose imagery implied new blooms, flower beds rather than killing fields, and the nurturing touch of the gardener rather than the harsh hand of the commissar.
The Rose Revolution ousted the corrupt and ineffective regime of Eduard Shevardnadze. Saakashvili’s democratic party won decisive presidential and parliamentary election victories, providing persuasive evidence for the earnest new era of the Rose.
By invoking authoritarian power, Saakashvili has dashed considerable public trust and goodwill. ‘The Washington Post’ has observed editorially that the ominous course chosen by Saakashvili will prove more destructive of U.S.-led efforts to promote democracy than could have been accomplished by ‘a dozen Pervez Musharrafs’.
The geopolitical precipice confronting Georgia is less stark than in Pakistan, but just as steep. Ethnic instability is endemic. During World War II in 1944 Soviet dictator Josef Stalin suddenly arbitrarily deported the sizable population of Meskhetin Turks from Georgia as part of a vast relocation of an estimated 1.5 million people to Central Asia and Siberia.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, ‘ethnic cleansing’ broke out in Georgia and neighboring republics. The Abkhazia area within Georgia achieved de facto autonomy in the midst of such violent conflict. The surrounding region has become a swirling sea of hostile populations, occasional killing, and al Qaeda recruiting. During World War II, an estimated 700,000 Georgians fought in the Red Army. Smaller but still very substantial numbers joined Hitler’s forces. Georgians on both sides earned in blood deserved reputations as dedicated warriors.
As an alternative to death, Georgian troops captured by the Germans were given the opportunity to fight for the Third Reich. A special unit of such Georgians stationed on the Dutch island of Texel in the spring of 1945 rose up against the Germans. Heavy casualties ensued, earning the island a popular label as ‘the last battlefield’ of the war in Europe.
Saakashvili has now agreed to step down this November 22, providing a slender stem of hope for the future of democracy. Despite shortcomings, his government has significantly strengthened national institutions, providing until recently relative stability. He probably will win the presidential election scheduled for January.
In the interim, the Bush administration should try to strengthen the Rose. Experience teaches such efforts involve careful diplomatic tilling, hand in hand with allies, including NATO and the UN.
Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College. Thomas Cyr is an attorney and student of international relations.