ShareThisThe ouster of Japan's long-ruling -- all but 11 months since 1955 -- Liberal Democratic Party may not be quite the sea change in Japanese politics it seems.
The swing was indeed dramatic. The upstart Democratic Party of Japan won 308 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament, while the LDP was reduced from 300 seats to 119. But analysts say the lopsided results were less an endorsement of the DPJ than frustration with a party that seemed to be exhausted and bereft of ideas after too many years in power and seemingly paralyzed by years of stagnation and now a recession that the country is slowly climbing out of.
The upper levels of Japanese politics seem to be a clubby affair. The likely new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, is the grandson of a former prime minister and one of the founders of the LDP. Hatoyama is expected to be named by mid-month, in time to attend the U.N. General Assembly and the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh.
The DPJ faces several intractable problems. Japan's population is both aging and relentlessly shrinking. The population, now just over 127 million, is projected to dwindle to under 100 million by mid-century. A partial solution to both problems -- immigration -- is probably culturally unacceptable to the electorate.
The DPJ has made some expensive promises -- a $3,300-a-year child allowance, more generous farm subsidies, tax cuts, a hike in the minimum wage, extended unemployment insurance and a ban on hiring temporary workers. Assuming this doesn't send Japanese business into a funk, there is the problem of paying for it with a public debt that is close to 200 percent of GDP.
The DPJ wants to redefine Japan's relationship to the United States to one that is "more equal" and draw closer to Asia. The party promises to end a Japanese naval refueling mission to the Indian Ocean in support of U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan. The party also promises to re-examine the U.S. military presence in Japan, 50,000 troops and huge bases on Okinawa. Considering Japan's crazy neighbor, North Korea, just across the straits, the party might want to think carefully about reducing those forces.
Hatoyama's first task might be to gain control over the sprawling DPJ, united largely in its opposition to the LDP. Japan is not reticent about changing prime ministers. He will be the fourth in three years.
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, http://www.scrippsnews.com)
