ShareThisBy MARC SANDALOW
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Democrats are using the House page scandal in dozens, possibly hundreds, of races across the country to make the case that Republican leaders in Washington have grown drunk with power and should be voted out in November.
Rather than focus on the misdoings of former Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., who resigned Friday and entered an alcohol rehabilitation program over the weekend, Democratic candidates say the scandal is characteristic of a party preoccupied with protecting its congressional majority at the expense of the public interest.
Less than five weeks before Election Day, analysts from both parties agree that Democrats have been handed a potentially potent gift, bolstering already high expectations of significant gains in November.
Democratic consultant James Carville said if the election were held today, "this thing would be a rout," an assessment shared by a growing number of Republicans.
For more than a year, Democratic leaders have trotted out new slogans trying to play off dissatisfaction with Congress, the war in Iraq and the economy, blaming Republicans for a "culture of corruption" and asserting that the country needs a "new direction" and that "together, we can do better."
In a matter of days, the lurid details of Foley's e-mails to underage pages and the GOP's response has provided Democrats an easy-to-digest version of the same story line, and one which they show every intention of keeping alive.
One House candidate, Patty Wetterling of Minnesota, has already begun airing television commercials attacking Republican leaders who "knowingly ignored the welfare of children to protect their power," and Democrats have selected Wetterling to deliver the party's weekly radio address Saturday.
Scores of candidates from California to Connecticut are keeping the issue before voters by demanding that Republicans renounce House leaders who may have received advance warning of Foley's troubles, return Foley's campaign contributions _ which exceed $100,000 during the current campaign _ and join the call for House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois to resign.
"It's already bigger than Mark Foley. It's already about Dennis Hastert, the Republican leadership, and how they run the House. It's playing out and the GOP are scrambling," said independent pollster John Zogby, whose recent polls in battleground districts show Democrats with a comfortable edge as they seek the 15 net seats needed to win majority control of the House.
Amy Walter, who analyzes House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Republicans had begun to rebound from this summer's polls when they were preparing to confront a "Category 5 hurricane."
With the Foley story on the front page, "we can prepare for a Category 5 storm again," Walter said.
A review of dozens of Democratic campaign Web pages from around the country shows how Democrats are taking advantage of the scandal. Of the 18 most competitive races identified by the Cook Report, the Foley matter was prominently displayed on the Web pages of half the candidates, and most of the others simply had not been updated since last week. By contrast, the issue showed up on just two of the 18 Republican Web pages, both calling for Foley to be prosecuted.
Most of the Democratic statements call on Hastert to resign and insist the GOP response was typical of a party that has been in power too long.
New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, who is challenging Republican Rep. Heather Wilson, has issued five news releases related to the scandal, including one that demands her opponent return $133,500 she has received from GOP members who have been tied to the Foley affair. Madrid also faulted Wilson, who sat on a panel that oversaw the Capitol page program, for failing to intervene.
A spokesman for the Wilson campaign referred the San Francisco Chronicle to reports in the local papers, in which Wilson said she could not be expected to be familiar with the e-mails of all House members. Wilson said she will donate the $8,000 she received as a campaign contribution from Foley to charity, and rejected demands she call for Hastert's resignation.
Several Republican strategists said privately they cringe at the potential for Foley's indiscretions to add to their losses.
Asked how many races will be affected by the scandal, Sarah Feinberg of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said that it is "going to affect every race in the country."
Asked the same question, Carl Forti, her counterpart at the National Republican Campaign Committee, said "one," insisting that outside of Foley's district, the issue would have no effect.
(E-mail Marc Sandalow at msandalow(at)sfchronicle.com.)
