Afghanistan developments are grim. On September 2, a Taliban suicide bomber killed the nation's deputy chief of intelligence, Abdullah Laghmani, and more than twenty others.
Laghmani helped lead the National Directorate of Security, a central body combating the insurgency and terrorism, and had long been seen as a prime target for terrorists. For that reason, he had a substantial security force, which makes his death even more ominous.
Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the new U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has just submitted a comprehensive review of the strategic military situation. Reportedly the classified analysis emphasizes seriously deteriorating security in the nation, but also argues victory over the insurgency is possible with changes in approach. The suicide attack provides bloody punctuation to McChrystal's report, underscoring the sensitivity of effective insurgents to timing.
Finally, Afghanistan has just held national elections. Based on information from about 60 percent of the polling sites, incumbent President Hamid Karzai has pulled ahead of principal rival Abdullah Abdullah, capturing 47.3 percent of the votes for a 15 percent lead. But complaints of vote fraud are widespread and growing.
Security in Afghanistan has deteriorated for months. In June 2008, a dramatic prison break in Kandahar freed approximately 1,000 prisoners, including an estimated 400 hardcore insurgents. Last New Year's Eve, the Taliban scored a major tactical military as well as political victory through killing members of the security force of Abdul Salam, the commander of Musa Qala, a long-contested city in southern Afghanistan.
From a broader perspective, the long-term intense preoccupation of the Bush administration with Iraq provided an opportunity for the enemy in Afghanistan to regroup and rebuild. At this point there can be no doubt that the Taliban very effectively seized and exploited that opportunity.
Nevertheless, and despite the negative tone of much media commentary, there are also notably encouraging developments. First, the efforts in Afghanistan from the start, immediately after the 9/11 attacks, have been truly international. Both the United Nations and NATO are committed, in contrast to the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.
Second, there is growing emphasis on the economic and humanitarian dimensions of Afghanistan. Last year the Group of Eight foreign ministers decided to devote massive financial resources to combating the narcotics traffic and poverty in the country, focused on areas where these problems are most severe. A new G-8 coordinating body oversees approximately four billion dollars in aid.
Very substantial drug production in Afghanistan represents a special challenge. Here useful lessons are provided by the Nixon administration. President Richard Nixon and associates creatively used product licensing to encourage Turkish farmers to sell crops to pharmaceutical companies for legal medicinal purposes. Drug production moved elsewhere, including Afghanistan, but illegal supplies from Turkey dried up. Special South Asia Envoy Richard Holbrooke has indicated explicit interest in applying this same imaginative approach to Afghanistan.
Third, the Taliban inspires great fear but not support among the wider population. This contrasts markedly with success of the revolutionary insurgent organizations during the French and American Vietnam wars.
Fourth, recent national elections represent tremendous progress in feudal and decentralized Afghan society. In particular, the new participation of women is extremely important. Other developing nations demonstrate dramatically that direct involvement of women as citizens, voters and candidates brings a wealth of positive changes.
We are still a long way from defeat in Afghanistan.
Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College and author of 'After the Cold War'(NYU Press and Macmillan/Palgrave). E-mail him at acyr(at)carthage.edu
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