ShareThisThe sudden death of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Il adds even more uncertainty to the tense and unpredictable surviving totalitarian state.
His designated successor, youthful third son Kim Jong Un, has literally no experience at managing or leading anything. Dangers include seizure of power by North Korean army hardliners, or possibly the total collapse of the economically precarious state.
The danger of recommencing the bloody Korean War of 1950-53, never formally concluded by treaty, may now be even greater. Just over a year ago, North Korean artillery bombarded Yeonpyeong Island, controlled by South Korea.
The island lies just south of the maritime boundary dividing the two states, not far from the scenes of the sinking of a South Korean naval corvette in March 2010 and an earlier skirmish between naval gunboats. A special international panel concluded that the corvette was sunk by a North Korean vessel. Pyongyang has denied the charge.
Meanwhile, the surviving communist regime in Pyongyang continues to ratchet up the nuclear stakes. U.S. scientist Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, last year visited North Korea and returned with a disturbing report that new nuclear facilities are being constructed.
The Cold War began in Berlin, as disagreements grew between the Soviets and Western allies occupying defeated Germany, but became global with the outbreak of the very costly Korean War. The Truman administration quite properly defended South Korea when North Korea invaded, working through the United Nations. The U.S. navy redeployed to protect Taiwan from communist China, and anti-communist alarm became greatly heightened in American and European politics.
President Barack Obama's instinct is to negotiate, often a welcome change from Bush bluster, but not in this case. Years of diplomatic flexibility toward Pyongyang have yielded nearly nothing beyond limited delay in nuclear development.
Instead, Washington should emphasize economic leverage, which is considerable. Beneath military bravado, North Korea experiences ongoing economic crises. Two years ago, Pyongyang suddenly seized the population's money, including savings, as part of issuing a new currency. The move was aimed at throttling the steadily expanding unofficial economy, but the result was widespread public protests.
In the past, well-aimed economic pressure on North Korea has paid off. The Bush administration declared Banco Delta Asia (BDA), based in Macau, a renegade institution assisting illegal financial activities by Pyongyang. U.S. businesses were banned from dealing with BDA, and others followed suit. Macau government authorities froze $25 million in North Korean funds. The money was unfrozen following Pyongyang concessions.
Fresh economic initiatives, supplemented by cultural, educational and humanitarian exchanges, could encourage restraint by North Korea. Despite gunfire and nuclear construction, Pyongyang has continued to support North-South commercial cooperation through the free trade zone located just north of the Demilitarized Zone.
Washington could support Seoul in offers to expand this collaboration, in return for specific nuclear and other concessions. Korea had a long history of unity before harsh division of the peninsula in 1945.
During the height of the Cold War, President Dwight D. Eisenhower gave consistent support to cultural and educational exchanges with the Soviet Union. That exceptionally effective leader also provides an important lesson in the true brutal realities of war.
After Eisenhower assumed the presidency, stalled Korean War armistice talks were successfully concluded after expanded bombing of North Korea. Ike knew how to get that job done. Obama should regularly and publicly emphasize absolute commitment to South Korea's security.
Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College. E-mail him at acyr(at)carthage.edu
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