ShareThisSAN FRANCISCO - Three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer of California is in her toughest re-election campaign ever, finding herself in a virtual tie with two of her possible Republican opponents while her disapproval rating is rising, according to a just-released Field Poll released today.
Boxer trails former South Bay Rep. Tom Campbell 44 percent to 43 percent, and barely leads former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, 45 percent to 44 percent, according to the survey of 748 likely voters this month. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Boxer leads California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Irvine, 45 percent to 41 percent.
All three candidates have gained ground on Boxer since previous polls were reported.
Analysts said those comparisons largely reflect the national anti-incumbent feeling rather than support for the Republican candidates, who are not yet widely known. The poll found that nearly 60 percent of the respondents had "no opinion" about Campbell and Fiorina, and 78 percent felt the same about DeVore.
But voter sentiment about Boxer is turning negative. Her unfavorable rating jumped to 51 percent from 39 percent in January. And among the pivotal nonpartisan voters, her disapproval rating is 54 percent.
"The mood of the voters is really turning sour, and this is really a yes or no vote against Boxer," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "She has never been in this situation before, where she's standing in a strong headwind."
DiCamillo said he'd classify the race for Boxer's seat in the "toss-up" category.
Other recent polls tell a similar story. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that four in five respondents thought little of Congress, while voters were split on which party could better handle economic issues. And a just-released Rasmussen Poll found Boxer leading each of her Republican opponents by single digits, with her lead over Campbell -- her closest competitor -- shrinking to two points.
Boxer's campaign team realizes the gravity of her situation. She has trailed in the polls during her re-election years before -- she trailed Republican Matt Fong in the summer of 1998 -- but this year she is also battling a national wave of voter frustration.
"Clearly, this is going to be the toughest campaign ever for Barbara Boxer," Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski said. "We need to reach out to those nonpartisan and undecided voters and tell Barbara's story."
The campaign received some good news this week when a White House official confirmed that President Barack Obama would appear at a Los Angeles fundraiser for Boxer and the Democratic National Committee some time in April.
While the event is expected to net at least several hundred thousand dollars, Boxer campaign officials do not expect to start airing commercials until after the June 8 primary. Boxer is not expected to face any well-known Democrats in the primary.
"What I find significant is that Boxer is tied with three candidates who are markedly different from each other politically," said Henry Brady, a professor of political science at UC Berkeley and dean of the Goldman School of Public Policy.
The pecking order in the GOP primary race didn't change much from Field's January temperature-taking. Campbell leads with 28 percent of the poll's support, followed by Fiorina at 22 percent and DeVore at 9 percent.
DeVore was the only candidate to have gained support, up from 6 percent in January.
A spokesman for Campbell, a pro-choice candidate who is the most moderate of the three, was delighted to have crossed the "psychological barrier" of finally leading Boxer in a poll. It will help fundraising for a candidate who only recently jumped to the Senate race from the race for governor.
"Barbara Boxer is not one of those Democrats who can separate herself from the national trend," said Campbell spokesman James Fisfis. "She can't say that she bucked her party. Where has she disagreed with her party before?"
"She's vulnerable, and she's vulnerable with independent voters," said Fiorina spokeswoman Julie Soderlund.
DeVore spokesman Joshua Trevino said the assemblyman's rating in the poll is "not where we want to be but we're moving in the right direction. It's OK. It's mid-March."
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
Must credit the San Francisco Chronicle
Ballast freedom and economic domination
Voters do not realized that the legislation held up by Senator Boxer in 2008 on a states rights that passed the house 395-7 could have had a major impact on helping our economy and provided secure jobs for all Americans. A recent report prepared for the 111th congress tells how strong Federal ballast water laws may cause the cost of foreign manufactured imported goods to rise due to retrofiting, mainly foreign ships. State laws are not enforceable or strong enough when the Coast Guard has their own agenda and another state makes it cheaper at their ports. Senator Boxer has not tried to introduce new Federal legislation that would satisfy her state rights objection in 2008. Now we have this administration appearing to be happy with the Military Coast Guard plan that follows the International Maritime Organization for the next decade with China the biggest ship builders in the world as a major member of the IMO playing a part in our environmental laws. Is the reason we are not working on this because: previous administrations have set up and arrangement allowing China to peg the value they want for their currency to ours so then China can bid at “competative” auctions in the world markets on the treasury notes we keep issuing paying squat in interest, so then we are able to finance debt and entitlements while ever increasing our national debt, while cheap consumer goods can be negotiated for our big box outlet stores who are our countries largest employers? President Obama ought to worry about Senator Boxer and himself if he continues in this direction as a way to create jobs.