Jeans for $29, the sign reads.
What's a mother to do if she has two daughters about to go back to school?
"The sales are really enticing," said Janet Weeks, who has a 12-year-old and a 15-year-old. "That's a pretty good deal for jeans."
But she's a teacher who is a little worried about her job at McClatchy High School in Sacramento, Calif.
So moderation is the theme for this year, said Weeks, who is passing up a lot of the deals and bargains.
"This year, they can probably start the school year with shirts and shorts from summer and we can wait a bit on the jeans and sweat shirts until they really need them," she said. "Instead of Macy's, we'll do H&M."
Traditionally, retailers rely on a midyear wave of back-to-school spending. But consumers like Weeks have signaled belt-tightening this year.
"It will be challenging," said Kathy Grannis, a spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation in Washington.
Retailers also view back-to-school shopping as a traditional prelude to the holiday season, mainly as a measure of consumer willingness to spend, Grannis said.
The forecast for the holidays is slight optimism tempered by reined-in expectations, according to retail watchers.
Most retailers have already done holiday-season ordering and they're not buying a lot, said George Whalin, a longtime retail consultant from Carlsbad, Calif.
For back-to-school spending, the NRF predicts an almost 8 percent drop from last July, making it a $47.5 billion season, including shopping for college-bound students. The NRF, in an annual online survey, found that families will spend an average of $549, compared to $594 a year ago, to resupply kindergarten through high-school students. The priciest category is college freshmen, whose families will spend an average of $821.
Nearly three of four families will target discounters, with nearly a quarter of them shopping at drugstores, an 18 percent jump over last year's drugstore bargain hunters.
Only 15 percent of shoppers said the recession won't affect their back-to-school shopping, but a whopping majority will ferret out sales, buy store or generic brands and do more comparative shopping because of hard times.
Almost 50 percent of families said they will spend less and 35 percent will make do with last year's purchases.
For families of K-12 students, spending on electronics is the only category to jump, by 11 percent -- up to $168. Clothing, excluding shoes, is the second-largest K-12 spending category, with families reporting they will spend an average of $205. Add to that an average of $94 for shoes.
It appears the same number of shoppers will be buying as last year, but they will be cutting back on merchandise like clothing, Grannis said.
The apparel segment of the retail industry has suffered one of the hardest hits during the downturn, said Whalin.
"I don't think there's any doubt it's going to be grim," he said of July sales.
Retailers generally are cutting inventory to reduce the risk of having to significantly mark it down later, which could mean less selection for student shoppers, said Brady Lemos, an analyst with Morningstar who tracks American Eagle, Abercrombie & Fitch and Aeropostale. But there will be promotions and sales to get keep shoppers coming and keep inventory flowing out the door, he said.
Weeks said she will probably spend the same for basics, like shoes and phys-ed socks. And she likes the deals at Target for supplies, such as composition notebooks, she said.
She's also grateful her daughters favor more affordable places such as American Eagle and H&M, she said. And if they do find something they like that's out of the budget, they go online to find a similar, less expensive version.
(menkoji(at)sacbee.com.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
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